re:["After a brief 'head-fake', the "PUCK" will be @
$150 oil, and $15 natty!!!"]
I can only hope.
That's my point, stand aside and give 'em some rope.
It's not just about price.
It's also about time.
As far as $15 nat gas?
Two different sets of fundamentals, and catalysts, for oil
and gas.
If gas continues to follow oil higher, nat gas once again
becomes a discrepancy between price and risk trade - short.
I've made two massively profitable short trades against
natty over the last few years, and @ $15 summer gas -
there shall be a 3rd.
So it was written - so it shall be done.
...bank on it.
Deja Vu all over again?
The whines of the beltway dinner party cognoscenti brought
pressure on gold, on defending the dollar, and on addressing
inflation. Gasoline prices are reaching max pain levels, and
the elections are just six short months away.
Politicians may be blind, but they aren't deaf.
Don't get greedy if you're long. Natty got cut in half in
less than a month, and fell from $15 to the $4's during
the '05/'06 bubble collapse.
Banks have a mantra: "know your customer" -- traders,
ought to be heeding that same mindset right about know.
Remember, you have to have a story to sell, and a large
herd that's not in, to sell it to.
And once the music stops, there's no more story, no more
herd.... only a very large crowd, in a very small room,
with only one, very small exit door.
SOTB
PS:
-- Sovereign bank has to raise $2 billion in capital.
-- AIG writes off $7.8 billion in losses.
-- Citi to sell of $400 billion in assets.
re: Citi's $400 billion asset sale, it might be worth
noting that their market cap is only $127 billion.
Wo to he that thinks there was only one Bear Stearns.
As Volcker said:
"The only thing the Fed can do, is buy time."
...tick, tock. |
