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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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To: John Pitera who wrote (9368)5/9/2008 12:07:24 PM
From: nspolar  Read Replies (1) of 33421
 
John, I would prefer that crude is in a vth and final move here (for this run), as is the CRB/CCI. One could argue a bit where I suppose, but I prefer much closer to the end than the beginning. In a case such as we are in I would also suspect early truncation at the top, and an incomplete finish.

I do not follow crude that much, follow the $DJUSEN.

$DJUSEN:

Started 5th wave in early Oct of '06.

Started 3rd of 5th about March of '07.

Started 5th of 5th about Feb of '08, topping now??

One wave of any 5 wave series must extend (my rule). The 5th wave in the DJUSEN extended. The 3rd wave within the 5th extended and maybe the 5th within the 5th as well.

If this analysis is correct I think the DJUSEN should retreat back to the 400 area, in the next correction.

Prechter did an interesting paper on peak oil many months ago. As I recall he has crude in a 5th and final wave, in the real LT sense, this whole move probably being a 3rd. He also showed that in terms of real money (gold) crude is falling behind, really. I dunno. I would rather think it more likely that in a LT sense crude has made a major major
BO here. A retrenchment is inevitable, but following that the next move could really take it up to the moon. The pain to consumers is pretty hefty here. Wait till the next run peaks, some years down the road. The pain will be unbearable.

TF
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