Who will McCain pick as VP? An interesting lot of possibilities from exurbanleague.com
Posted by Jon at 2/15/2008 10:51 AM and is filed under Jon,Politics
Note: Someone once called blogging "intellectual prototyping." Last week's analysis of McCain's choice of a running mate generated a lot of traffic along with excellent comments and suggested improvements. Today I'm revisiting the issue to include all the content in a single new post. Thanks to our readers for their excellent contributions.
Now that the GOP nominating process is all but over, pundits are buzzing over potential vice presidential candidates. Many of the suggested running mates would hurt more than help (Huck? Are you kidding me?) while truly excellent choices are barely mentioned. Don't worry McCain campaign — we're here to help!
Like any presidential nominee, McCain has a unique set of strengths and weaknesses heading into November. Although few vote for the second banana, a bad choice can create serious headaches down the road (:cough: Dan Quayle :cough: ). But in our 50/50 political world, a great pick could make the difference between a one-state loss and a one-state win.
Key Qualities
Here are the main qualities that McCain must assess in any potential candidate:
* Presidential (P): If elected, McCain would be our oldest president. And with the physical hell he’s endured in those 71 years, his health will be a major campaign issue. When you look at how rapidly presidents age due to job stress, he needs someone ready to assume command from day one.
* Standard-bearer (S): Except in the case of Cheney, nearly every VP is assumed to be the party’s heir apparent. Will McCain’s choice enthuse the base as they look to his future leadership?
* Ideological balance (I): A true-blue conservative could help turn out the base. A moderate or liberal could bolster the middle. There are pros and cons in this area, depending on McCain’s general election strategy.
* Geographic advantage (G): If a candidate can deliver a state, he will be a phenomenal asset in this evenly divided nation. A running mate won’t turn a blue state red, but he could help drag a purple state into the R column.
* Experiential diversity (E): We haven’t elected a sitting senator since JFK. Lack of executive experience and a long paper trail are a couple of big reasons for that.
* Age/Ethnicity/Gender (D): I hate this category, but McCain will be an old, white male facing a younger African-American or woman. And every criticism he makes will be reported by the MSM as being either racist or sexist accordingly. He might want to defuse those charges with a “diversity” pick. However, he will then be criticized as choosing a token.
After each candidate is mentioned below, I will add the corresponding letters to denote which key qualities they possess.
Presidential Candidates
Talking heads first looked for a veep among a nominee’s opponents in the primary. These people are already familiar to voters, are fairly well-vetted and have an obvious interest in spending the next four years in and around the White House. Let’s evaluate this year’s crop:
* Gov. Mike Huckabee: (E) Everybody's talking about a McCain/Huck ticket. Madness. Huckabee is distrusted by conservatives almost as much as McCain. He is absolutely loathed by several constituencies including Mormons and those suspicious of the religious right. He also has several hints of Arkansas-style ethics problems. His only regional/ideological strengths appeal to voters who already vote GOP in every election. A terrible choice.
* Mayor Rudy Giuliani: (P, I, E) I think this is the only decent VP choice from this group, but it isn't a slam dunk. Like Huckabee, Rudy is distrusted and disliked by much of the party base who could never see him as a party standard-bearer. The mayor does provide unique experience and would be ready to lead on the first day. But his geographic background wouldn't turn the Northeast red on election day.
* Sen. Fred Thompson: (P, I) A cantankerous, old, white senator from the South to balance a cantankerous, old, white senator from the West? I love Fred, but this ain't gonna happen. Many conservatives would be enthused ideologically, but none of us see Thompson running for president four to eight years from now.
* Gov. Mitt Romney: (P, S, I, E) Actually, Romney balances McCain better than Rudy and offers solid economic experience. But this won't happen because McCain hates Mitt and holds a grudge FOREVER (I'm an Arizonan, I know). The personal differences make this a non-starter, I fear.
* Rep. Duncan Hunter: (S, I) It’s tough enough for a senator to jump to the White House, let alone a little-known congressman. Another old white male hawk from Capitol Hill? Nope.
* Tancredo, Tommy Thompson, Brownback, Ron Paul: No, no, no and HAYUHL no.
Governors
Other than Rudy, those look like a bust, huh? The next natural choice is an outside-the-beltway executive — namely a governor, preferably of a swing state. Thankfully, the GOP has a pretty strong bench on that front:
* Tim Pawlenty (Minn.): (P, S, I, G, E) Supported McCain, yet couldn’t deliver his state in the GOP primary.
* Charlie Crist (Fla.): (P, S, G, E) Many say Crist won Florida for McCain. However, Crist is unmarried and is the victim of a few ugly rumors on that front (it’s sad that this matters, but the Dems won’t play softball).
* Haley Barbour (Miss.): (P, S, I, E) A very shrewd political operator and successful executive.
* Mark Sanford (S.C.): (P, S, I, E) Another very popular governor.
* Bobby Jindal (La.): (S, I, G, E, D) This guy’s a rising rock star who would provide both regional and ethic diversity. However, he is very new to the job. Look for him on a short list in ’12 or ’16.
* Bill Owens (Colo., ret.): (P, S, I, E) A rock-ribbed conservative who has been politically inactive for a while.
* Frank Keating (Okla., ret.): (P, S, I, E) Another strong conservative who is quite popular among Catholics.
* Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (Md., ret.): (S, I, E, D) A very impressive man, but he recently lost a statewide senate race.
* Tom Ridge (Penn., ret.): (P, S, G, E) The leading speculation in 2000 is that Ridge would be Dubya's running mate. However, even as secretary of the immensely important Homeland Security, he didn't leave much of an impression.
* Sarah Palin (Alaska): (S, I, D) Very successful, very popular and very fine, but she too is a bit of a newbie. Is two years leading an atypical state enough for Veep honors?
* Lt. Gov. Ken Blackwell (Ohio, ret.): (S, I, D) Ohio's a swing state, but he also lost a statewide race.
Legislators
Being a long-time believer in loyalty, I wouldn't be surprised if McCain wanted to pick a loyal old ally from Capitol Hill. However, in most cases, another legislator will not enhance the ticket. The House and Senate are the worst kind of good-ol'-boy networks and anyone from that pool would reinforce McCain's inside-the-Beltway status.
In addition, a long vote record means a long paper trail that will damage and re-damage the ticket — many times unfairly. When John Kerry proudly said, "I voted for it before I voted against it," he thought it was another impressive example of his legislative skill. However, most voters don't get that horse-trading subculture and they don't want to get it. Nevertheless, a few names have been mentioned as running mate possibilities:
* Rep. John Kasich (Ohio, ret.): (P, S, I, G) A strong public presence from his Fox News hosting duties, an economic expert and a popular figure in his home state.
* Rep. Chris Cox (Calif., ret.): (P, S, I) Out of the public eye, but a very appealing Republican.
* Sen. Tom Coburn (Okla.): (P, S, I) A more conservative version of McCain.
* Sen. Jim DeMint (S.C.): (P, S, I) Ditto.
* Sen. John Thune (S.D.): (P, S, I) Very sharp, positive conservative.
* Rep. Mike Pence (Ind.): (P, S, I) Popular among the conservative base.
* Rep. J.C. Watts (Okla., ret.): (S, I, D) Also out of the public eye, but still beloved.
* Rep. Marsha Blackburn (Tenn.): (S, I, D) An appealing conservative choice.
* Sen. Phil Gramm (Texas, ret.): (P, I) Venerated among economic conservatives, but his highly funded '96 presidential campaign was a bust.
* Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson (Texas): (P, D) A classic middle-of-the-road legislator.
The Rest
That leaves members of the Bush administration, the military and long-time "movement" conservatives. Each of these subsets have drawbacks. Most Americans — right and left — are just exhausted with the Bush Administration. I don't see how any prominent cabinet member (i.e., Condi Rice, Colin Powell, etc.) would be seriously considered. Similarly, Jeb Bush would be a fine pick if it wasn't for that darn last name.
McCain already has the military angle covered. Calling up another military figure (i.e., Petraeus, Schwartzkopf, Powell, etc.) would make his ticket ideologically monochromatic, hurting more than helping. And conservative thought leaders (Forbes, Gingrich, etc.)don't bring an electoral constituency because they dropped out of politics long ago. But let's look at people who have been mentioned in the Veepstakes:
* Fmr. OMB Director & Rep. Rob Portman: (P, S, I, G, E) Ohio-based up-and-comer in the GOP.
* Sec. Condoleezza Rice: (P, S, E, D) Heavy association with Bush and concerns about how she ran the State department create serious complications.
* OMB Director Jim Nussle: (P, S, I, E) Actually, no one is talking about this guy, but he's an affable Midwesterner and former congressman who really gets economics.
* Gen. Colin Powell: (P, E, D) Saddled with poor pre-Iraq intelligence and distrust by GOP base.
* Rep. Newt Gingrich: (P, S, I) Definitely a thought leader, but not well-liked by the American people.
* Steve Forbes: (P, I, E) Econogenius, but not an electoral powerhouse.
* Sec. Bill Bennett: (P, I, E) A lot of admirers, but a lot of enemies who will drag up a serious paper trail.
* Gen. Tommy Franks: (P, E) Will get attacked for early Iraq missteps while his politics remain unknown.
* Gen. Norman Schwartzkopf: (P, E) Beloved but long faded from the political sphere.
* Gen. David Petraeus: (P, E) And take him out of Iraq? No thanks.
The Top Ten
So how do we sort through this jumble of names and letters? Well, you can't determine a Veep by mathematical formulae since each brings a nuanced set of advantages and disadvantages. Maybe some of these people have some unknown skeletons in their closets while others would never accept a role as VP. Nevertheless, applying my above observations, some political common sense, and my own set of biases, here are the Top Ten vice presidential candidates for the GOP in 2008.
1. Gov. Tim Pawlenty
2. Gov. Charlie Crist
3. Mayor Rudy Giuliani
4. Gov. Mark Sanford
5. Gov. Haley Barbour
6. Gov. Sarah Palin
7. Rep. Rob Portman
8. Sen. John Thune
9. Gov. Mitt Romney
10. Rep. Chris Cox
Alright Sen. McCain, I did some serious legwork for you. Once your fundraising gets back on track, you owe me an expensive night on the town and all the Hensley beverages I can fit in my fridge.
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Among all these names, I'd be happy with Chris Cox, Rob Portman, Tim Pawlenty, John Kasich, or J.C. Watts. |
