May 9, 2008
Betting on Warming or Cooling
By Andrew C. Revkin
Vegas(Credit: Jared McMillen for The New York Times)
[UPDATE 5/9, 8:45 a.m.: See some thoughts below on Joe Romm’s recent complaints about my coverage of the Nature paper forecasting some North American and European cooling before the long-term warming trend resumes.]
The scientists who maintain the Realclimate.org blog have offered a climate wager to the research team from Germany that recently predicted a short pause in global warming (along with some North American and European cooling).
Here’s how the Realclimate bloggers set up the bet:
The bet we propose is very simple and concerns the specific global prediction in their Nature article. If the average temperature 2000-2010 (their first forecast) really turns out to be lower or equal to the average temperature 1994-2004 (*), we will pay them € 2500. If it turns out to be warmer, they pay us € 2500. This bet will be decided by the end of 2010. We offer the same for their second forecast: If 2005-2015 (*) turns out to be colder or equal compared to 1994-2004 (*), we will pay them € 2500 – if it turns out to be warmer, they pay us the same. The basis for the temperature comparison will be the HadCRUT3 global mean surface temperature data set used by the authors in their paper.
To be fair, the bet needs an escape clause in case a big volcano erupts or a big meteorite hits the Earth and causes cooling below the 1994-2004 level. In this eventuality, the forecast of Keenlyside et al. could not be verified any more, and the bet is off. The bet would also need a neutral arbiter – we propose, for example, the director of the Hadley Centre, home of the data used by Keenlyside et al., or a committee of neutral colleagues. This neutral arbiter would also decide whether a volcano or meteorite impact event is large enough as to make the bet obsolete.
Odds-making can be a useful tool in separating intellectual wheat from chaff. My colleague John Tierney has written on this off and on for years. Some analysts have even proposed using futures markets to home in on terrorism risks. I’ll report in if and when this climate forecasting wager is taken up.
What would you bet?
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