weekly memory roundup - courtesy of DRAMexchange:
Top-15 DRAM module roundup: Kingston manages to achieve 30% YoY sales growth despite industry trough; Global NAND Flash memory card and UFD makers ranking by sales in FY07
Published May.13, 2008
Top-15 DRAM module roundup: Kingston manages to achieve 30% YoY sales growth despite industry trough
While ASP of DDR2 512Mb and 1Gb plunged by a respective 86% and 70% and edged to makers’ variable costs in FY07, not only DRAM makers but DRAM module makers suffered. Any players, who do not manage their financials or inventory well, were all exposed to stiff risks. Yet, DRAM module makers still managed to maintain sales growth amidst the stiff pricing environment.
DRAM module sales totaled at US$11bn in FY07, with the top five vendors accounted for 46% of the total sales and the top 15 accounted for 72%. Only one of those being listed as the top 15 vendors was being expelled from the top-ten list. And there comes a new comer in the list from Japan - Buffalo.
Positions of the top three vendors maintain static, with Kingston still topping as the number-one vendor on an enlarged market share. A-Data and Smart Modular Tech. hold their second and third position firm, though their sales have declined by about 10% YoY respectively. Of the top-15 vendors, they still have their sales grew by a mild 3.6% YoY in FY07.
Sales from those players that are not listed in the top-15 list have declined by 42% YoY, signifying that their weaker price competitiveness may force them to quit the market if they fail to establish a foothold in niche applications sales.
Top-ten vendors snapshot
Kingston is the one DRAM module maker that is powerful enough to manage growth during industry downturn. Its sales grew by 28.6% YoY in FY07. Combined sales of the top-two to top-three vendors are still lower than Kingston’s. Its precise pricing strategy and well inventory management are the two fundamental criteria making its achievements outstanding. Thanks to its competitive pricing strategy in emerging countries, the encouraging market share gain has helped secured its dominant foothold further.
Among all major vendors, Transcend is the one that achieved strongest sales growth, with its annual sales grew by 36% YoY in FY07. Besides the sufficient capacity backup from its Suzhou operation, its customized sales and marketing strategies in respective regions is also a judging factor. Sales growth in FY07 is mainly stemmed from emerging regions including Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Russia. Southeast Asia and India are believed to be the two key sales drivers in FY08.
Apacer records its sales up 11% YoY in FY07. In addition to the consistent growth that driven by parent company, Acer, in notebook market, the extending synergy from brandname promotion also helps boosting sales. As of FY07, the company has its sales evenly spited up by DRAM and NAND Flash, in contrast to a 70% sales exposure to DRAM module business in FY06. Apacer currently records satisfactory sales from Eastern Europe and China. Sales target is expected to be placed on emerging markets in FY08.
Buffalo from Japan is a new comer to the top-15 list in FY07, and it is also the only one Japan based company in the list. The company marks its success by not just eyeing Japan market but global markets. It has established sales branches all over the world. Built on its superior quality, it grabs more market share in its long-established markets including Europe and the US, as well as Southeast Asia and India.
DRAM supply bit growth is expected to be 65% in FY08. As DRAM makers either cut capex or slow down new fab construction, a stabilizing price environment is foreseeable. This implies that DRAM module makers should see less pressure from a volatile pricing environment this year. Also, they are expected to lower risk by growing sales exposure to NAND Flash to pursue for a higher elasticity for better profit.
Global NAND Flash memory card and UFD makers ranking by sales in FY07
Global memory card and USB Flash drive (UFD) market valued at US$11.5bn in FY07. Among all major vendors, SanDisk led in terms of sales at US$2.93bn, followed by consumer electronics giant Sony’s US$1.73bn. Kingston, the number-one DRAM module vendor, ranked third at a sales amount of US$1.13bn. PNY, a leading US-based channel brand, took the fourth place at a sales amount of US$715mn. Taiwan-based Transcend was one of the top five on a sales amount of US$619mn.
Built on the capacity backup from the Toshiba JV, SanDisk recorded shipments of its microSD card soared by 128% YoY in FY07, generating an equivalent sales of US$1.4bn. It also achieved a good sales record in SD and CF card markets, the two market segments that are mainly dominated by digital camera, on a sales amount of US$1bn. In the UFD market, SanDisk recorded a 54% YoY shipment growth, generating an equivalent sales amount of US$500mn. SanDisk successfully took the lead in both memory card and UFD markets in terms of sales in FY07.
As a leading consumer electronics vendor, Japan-based Sony creates its proprietary memory card standard, Memory Stick, for its own-brand Cyber-shot cameras and Sony Ericsson handsets. Thanks to the leading roles that Sony hold in respective segments (Cyber-shot ranks second and SonyEricsson ranks as top five), it generated a sales amount of over US$1.7bn from both Memory Stick and UFD in FY07 on a relative high ASP than other memory card/UFD.
Kingston, as the number-one DRAM module maker, has its role in both memory card and UFD rapidly rise over recent years. Built on its well-established channels, the company aggressively boosted its market share in memory card and UFD. Over the past two years, it consistently expanded its market share in these segments in emerging countries such as China, India, Russia and Middle and South America. Note that its sales scale of over US$500mn in UFD market in FY07 has already allowed it to reach a level similar to SanDisk.
As a leading US channel memory branded vendor, PNY has held a solid market share for years. While having about 80% of its sales contributed by the US market, it is aggressively extending its presence to markets including China, India and Europe over the past few years. It recorded a sales amount of US$715mn from memory card and UFD in FY07.
Being one of the top five memory card and UFD maker in FY07, Transcend was the only player that comes from Taiwan. Thanks to its years-long deployment in branded sales in channel, the synergy of brandname started emerging from FY06, as evidenced in the growing market share in Europe, India and China. By including its success sales record from Japan, it achieved a sales amount of US$619mn from memory card and UFD in FY07.
According to the memory card and UFD sales from the listed vendors, SanDisk, Kingston and PNY are the three top players. Sony also takes a heavy role in the market, not only because of its proprietary memory card standard, but also its influential power in both digital camera and handset markets. Where for Taiwan vendors, their influence is set to grow further amid the aggressive deployments in emerging markets and channels over the recent years.
1H May contract price comment
NAND Flash contract price of 1H May remains flat. Though some NAND Flash suppliers earlier announced reduction, current market still reflects traditional low season condition. Therefore, before 3Q demand for inventory, the market has been watching and price keeps flat. In the short term, the contract price is more likely to keep flat.
NAND Flash spot price recap, May 5-12
In the SLC segment, price of 1Gb flat at US$1.79; 2Gb up 0.7% at US$2.74; 4Gb down 0.3% at US$3.73; 8Gb down 4.9% at US$7.22 and 16Gb down 1.1% at US$16.89. In the MLC segment, price of 4Gb down 2.5% at US$1.94; 8Gb down 2.4% at US$3.27; 16Gb down 3.2% at US$5.08; 32Gb down 0.9% at US$11.30 and 64Gb down 2.6% at US$23.
Long way before DDR2 replaced by DDR3
Given the continuous performance improvement from major vendors, low end chipset market gradually expands into former high end chipset territory. As long as the price is low and performance is good enough to handle daily PC operations, typical users have no need to high end chipsets. Overall low end chipsets, such as Intel 945GC, AMD, and SiS chipsets, took up roughly 70% of overall MB market.
On the other hand, because low end chipsets support primarily DDR2 standard and because DDR2 price is nearly 3X cheaper than DDR3, although DDR3 products have long been available, adoption to DDR3 is nearly zero. Looking at the development trend in 2008 with the market dominating Intel chipset’s roadmap as reference, DDR3 may have a chance yet to be slowly adopted though the chance will be slim before end of 2008.
Referring to Intel’s product roadmap, the 4 Series chipset, to be launched in Q2, similar to current P35 MB will support both DDR2 and DDR3 standards. Memory suppliers have been eagerly awaiting the transition to DDR3 since the P35 MB was launched. However, given the huge price difference between DDR2 and DDR3, MB manufacturers are obviously not interested in such transition.
While DDR3 DRAM price remains prohibitively high, the new Intel 4 Series product has taken the simultaneous support approach. However, there was a decent number of engineering prototypes using 4 Series chipset supporting only DDR3 on exhibit at CeBit this year. We hope this increase in prototypes will help speed up the transition from DDR2 to DDR3.
dramexchange.com |
