citi: ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD)
1Q08 Non-eventful Results - Waiting for Phase IIb Data in 2Q
? What’s New — Acadia reported 1Q08 collaborative revenues of $0.8M
compared to our estimate of $2.0M and consensus estimate of $1.8M. ACAD
reported 1Q08 EPS of ($0.44) compared to our estimate of ($0.48) and
consensus of ($0.46).
? Pimavanserin PDP Update — Data from the first Parkinson’s Disease Psychosis
(PDP) Phase III trial is expected in 2009. The second trial may progress more
rapidly, but the company did not delineate a timeline for data release.
? ACP-104 Phase IIb Results Expected 2Q08 — The Phase IIb trial evaluating
ACP-104 as monotherapy in schizophrenia enrolled 248 patients and is
examining 100 and 200 mg bid doses compared to placebo. The primary
endpoint will be the reduction in PANSS after 6 wks of treatment. ACAD is
looking to see a 20% reduction. The study enrolled only patients with a
baseline PANSS score higher than 70.
? Model Revision and Reducing Price Target— We have reduced our price target
to $10 from $16. For 2008-2010, we have estimated a reduction in
collaborative revenues. We assume a one year delay in ACP-104 timeline
versus previously. We still expect data from the Phase IIb trial in mid 2Q08 and
assume long term pivotal studies in 2009-2010, followed by NDA review in
2011 and potential launch in 2012. As such our 2008-2013 EPS is reduced to
($2.01), ($1.94), ($1.89), ($1.75), 0.07 and $1.43, respectively, from ($1.95),
($1.89), ($1.85),($1.38), $0.88, and $2.26. |
