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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: John Vosilla who wrote (94232)5/14/2008 3:57:52 PM
From: bart13  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
When Mish & I spoke about two weeks ago before he wrote most recently about M3, that chart was one I pointed out as part of the overall picture. He chose to mostly use my crisis and TAF/TSLF/PDCF comments, while also not seeing how the full picture fits together.

During the '70s, M2 did correct a number of times (not unlike what's happening now) and there were some both disinflationary and stagflationary periods like '74-76 was. As far as similarities to the '30s, there are some (like negative bank reserves) but in my opinion they're not significant enough to call for any actual or real deflation in the next two years or so.

The "two severe recessions the next decade along with much stagflation and even hyperinflation mixed in" sounds decent to me and better than most guesstimates, and I'd add in a higher volatility component due to higher manipulation going on behind the scenes.
The main kicker of course is how much hyperinflation - my *minimum* inflation guesstimate is 100% in the next five years.

And as long as I'm out in crystal ball land, my minimum targets for oil, gold & silver are $250, $3250 and $130 respectively... although it could be over 5 years.

And then there's the real issues - that euphemism called "social unrest" and also various Orwellian trends.
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