Obama Election now a 90% Probability
The investment significance for me is that one should exit the market in favor of 'oily foreign stocks and mining shares. JMHO. I will be out of the NYSE by the end of Ausgust - at the latest. It has been a great and profitable run and I give primary credit to the contributors of this great Board
For 2 years I have believed that an Obama election was likely. However, Obama's elitist comments and the Wright controversy gave me a moment of hope.
Two recent development have been like a cold shower: (1) High gasoline taxes (which we here all understand) and (2) The win by the Democrats this week of an open House seat in Mississippi. The incumbent had been a Republican in a district that President Bush won by 25% in 2004. This is the third off-season election in a row that Republicans have lost.
Below is a letter I wrote to a friend who is an incorrigible Obama supporter. It contains some of my fears for the future.
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Larry,
Perhaps you saw it on "60 minutes" also: Morley Saffer was interviewing some left-wing actor I'd never heard of; he repeated some vile and mean quote the actor had made about Dick Cheney for the sole purpose of allowing him to replace it with a quote that was merely vile. It was a deliberate setup: more of that conscious plan by those on the left to make the Bush Administration appear to the general public to be '40 miles of bad road.' No conspiracy, no prior deliberation, but millions of individual efforts to achieve a desired result. And the fact is, they've succeeded.
Saffer is one of those TV personalities who I had never before felt strongly about either way. He is of my same class, same intellectual pretensions, and we probably agree on 97 % of all ethical and moral issues. Now I hate him. And I am angry...as I'm sure you surmised from my rant.
My prognosis for this country is very dark; and President Obama and the future blow-up of race relations is only a part of that. I strongly have the belief that America will increasingly come to feel that it is occupied by an "alien presence"; and that there will be a violent rejection phenomena.
I know (and I knew) that you have made an emotionally commitment to Obama and I know further that it is ridiculous to remonstrate. I know further that your feelings are heart-felt and sincere.
But really Larry, why would you look for corroboration in what a politician, any politician, wrote or said. Obama is, and has been, a politician on the make for more than 25 years. After all, why else did he join Wright's church in the first place if not to advance his own political career? To put down roots in the black community that could push him along, Yes? Some politician's are such that you can get a feel for their character because of a long public track record. (I'm thinking Reagan or Eisenhower) But even then you should take their statements with a grain of salt.
And I can't believe that YOU believe that Obama has discovered something new on the abstract issues of 'understanding', compassion, people with different views, etc. I would go to my Cicero or Aquinas for that.
I don't believe Obama on those topics, or any other. But the fact is, IT DOESN'T MATTER whether he is sincere or not.
First, there is plenty of ammunition for me, and others of a like mind, to create the PERCEPTION among increasing numbers of citizens that he is Un-American, insincere, a stalking horse for HIS own alien ethnic group, etc. Just like the job the left has done on Bush. Only with more justification.
Just to give you a sample: When Michelle Obama said that 'for the first time she was proud to be an American' , she didn't mis-speak at all; she in fact thought she was complimenting 'America.' After all, she had been brought up on words of grievance and entitlement all her life, not just the 20 years she had spent in Jeremiah's church. She actually persisted in this viewpoint for a couple of days. It's a viewpoint that the Senator shares, although he is smart enough to cloak it in Harvard-ese.
Obama is smart and articulate, I grant. But do you really think that he will be able to pull off a JFK? Actually, I'm sure you do hope that. But you are very, very mistaken. A handsome war hero, it was easy to see JFK as 'one of us.' He took office at the end of a recession/ start of a boom, and actually lowered marginal tax rates. He took office on a platform of massively building up national defense against the communist 'menace' thus making himself the pivot around which we as a nation could rally.
Obama will take office at the start of a recession which will only get worse - as he has committed himself to raising taxes. He will preside over the humiliating withdrawal from the Middle East. He will have many foreign misadventures. It will be very easy, I assure you, to paint him as worse than Jimmy Carter! He has many'left' constituencies to reward and as he becomes increasingly isolated, he will of necessity rely on them more and more. Like left wing leaders everywhere, when things start going bad, he will try the demogogue card, but I am pretty sure that he is too alien to too many Americans for that to work. Most important of all, we ALREADY have an ideological divide and polarization in this country like nothing since the Civil War.
I know you will say that you are going ahead with your support for Obama because 'it is the right thing to do.' And you will ask me to withhold attacks 'for the good of the Country.'
I refuse Larry; the reason is that I no longer see ties that bind me to the same community/society as Morley Saffer et.al. Also, revenge will be sweet.
bruce |
