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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends
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To: NOW who wrote (530)5/16/2008 11:38:42 PM
From: skinowski  Read Replies (3) of 3209
 
I am of the same opinion as Allan - such series of 1's and 2's are likely to mislead and to turn out to be something different. I submit that there is yet another possibility - the decline in $HUI may be an evolving Leading Diagonal. Since presently the putative Wave 3 is shorter than W1, the 5th would have to be rather small.

We would only be able to tell retroactively that it was an LD - after the move would be completed. This brings up a question - Why bother with formations which can only be recognized once they are finished? The answer lies in the high predictive value of such an impulsive structure -- the odds would be high that the attempted rally would fail, and the decline would resume.

But, indeed, for now it seems fairly likely that the decline was corrective - unless proven otherwise.
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