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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (101077)5/18/2008 1:12:09 PM
From: Elroy Jetson  Read Replies (1) of 206325
 
Your supposition seems so reasonable that even I am inclined to readily agree with you, but I know from past experience that it doesn't work out that way.

When refinery margins last turned down and remained bad for many years most of Chevron's refineries would vacillate between small losses and small profits. But the wondrous state-of-the-art Pascagoula refinery, designed to handle the most sour and heavy crudes, marked up solid losses every year.

It was pride alone that kept it open. The argument was made that it would be more costly to shut it down, due to the unamortized capital costs, but this was a mental fig leaf. The truth was these were sunk costs and at the time the refinery was worth only scrap.

Of course there was the unquantifiable argument that Chevron needed to experience running Pascagoula as all refineries would eventually need to be of this sort. This appealed to the company psyche that we were a technological leader, so many could explain Pascagoula's losses as a very expensive R&D operation. Still the losses were the same.

When light sweet crude oil prices fell to $12 a barrel, sour heavy crude was going for $6. Obviously if it had declined to $1 or less things would have been better, but there's lifting and transportation costs associated with any oil, especially oil that has to be heated just to move it.

All I can tell you is a refinery that costs three times as much to build and twice as much in variable costs to operate does not do well in a downturn.
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