It's a little early yet to go from flat to short, but I'm close. There are encouraging signs that we have sprung our bull trap after these last few months of up (see post I am replying to), but only a few charts are broken here.
The most important factor is a lower line in your timeframe -- I mean the end of the trend -- a series of higher highs and higher lows. We do not see that just yet on, say, the S&P 500. (We do see it on the Dow, which has been lagging for a couple of weeks -- which was a bearish divergence.)
If we get some more net-down the next 4 or 5 sessions, then I'll go from neutral to "short the bounces" mode.
On Friday, I wanted to emphasize just how close things were to "major breakout modes", especially this week's canary in the coal mine, the semis. We pulled back from that, obviously, and today we spoke very early on about how we were, in the other direction, on the edge of a series of breakdowns. We went over that edge, but it is early days yet -- a little early to be shorting imho. I don't think it will happen, but bully could still pull it out of the fire, from a TA point of view. |
