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Technology Stocks : Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)
HPQ 26.640.0%9:48 AM EST
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To: David A. Lethe who wrote (4117)5/22/2008 3:52:11 PM
From: Kirk ©   of 4345
 
Good points to start a discussion.

I worked at HP on Fiber optics where we took long wavelength out of the labs in 1984 and put it into products. It worked great but it was maybe 15 years before it "broke even." Nobody can deny fiber changes the game over wire... but doing something great and making money are often separated by great lengths of time.

It may take a long time so they don't issue too many patents or journal articles so they can get it profitable without giving away the trade secrets. I know I came up with a way to make our receivers several db more sensitive at a very tiny cost penalty that we never published as it was a manufacturing trick... We had trouble shipping 200 MB/s and 125MB/s fiber modules (A LONG TIME AGO) and I had a $50 per unit budget to solve the EMI problem... came up with a solution that was nearly free but for a change in the ICs and another change in how we packaged them. No way we were going to write papers about it and let the competition know.

I guess what I am saying is it makes no sense to hype the stock until they are selling the devices then let the revenue growth speak for itself.

One idea is look at what memory makers and disk drive makers are selling for... if they are going to be obsolete, then this would be in their price.
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