"Is an attack on Iran a big risk?"
I don't know, lad. Is taking 4 M BPD of oil off the world market a big risk right now? $200 oil? $400 oil?
Oil Traders Fear US Attack on Iran: Maybe We Should Too
March 30, 2007
by Dave Lindorff
Okay, now I'm worried.
There have been several rounds of reports that the war-obsessed Bush administration was getting ready to attack Iran - first last September, then in December, and more recently in January and February.
The one thing that kept me thinking that a catastrophic war with Iran might not be in the offing was oil prices, which didn't seem to be acting as one would expect them to if there were a major war looming in the Persian Gulf. Oil prices, in fact, have been drifting slowly downward since September 2006, when they hit $68.85. Yet if there were going to be a hot war between the U.S. and Iran, one would expect much higher prices. After all, most of the combat would be occurring along Iran's heavily armed coastline and in the Gulf, through which some 40 percent of all the world's oil passes. In the event of such a conflict, oil shipments would shut down from that region as underwriters jacked the price of insuring oil tankers in the Gulf to astronomical levels. Estimates of how expensive oil could become in the event of a US attack on Iran, the world's second largest oil producing nation, have ranged as high as $200/barrel - a level that would bring the global economy to a screeching halt.
populistamerica.com
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Attack on Iran would rocket oil prices to 400 dollars - General
Thursday, 29 September 2005
Iran Focus
Tehran, Iran, Sep. 29 – Oil prices on the international markets would shoot up to $400 a barrel if an attack were to be carried out on Iran, a senior Revolutionary Guards commander warned, Persian-language websites reported on Thursday.
iranfocus.com |
