How would you rate x86 installed software base advantage vs. WinMobile (6.1, 7.0 etc), Mobile-Linux (Android etc.) that could run on both Intel's and Qualcomm's processors?
This all depends on what market you are looking at. The smartphone market is never going to be running x86 software. OTOH, UMPC devices are being marketed as laptop replacements. Intel is going to have an enormous leg up here versus devices that run some version of Linux. The fact that the x86 based devices will run the same version of Office and every other app that is on your desktop is just too big an advantage for the other OS's to overcome. Windows Mobile and Android arent even going to be factors in this market.
The MID market is a bit more chaotic. Currently, there are a variety of different versions of Linux being used to run the devices. Intel seems to be pushing the market to standardize on Ubuntu. As an open source platform, Intel wont be able to duplicate their x86 strategy, but I would imagine that they will see a substantial advantage from being the incumbent vendor for the first generation of these devices. Of course, I cant imagine that either Microsoft or Apple will sit still and watch any version of Linux grab an entire device segment. I see MID's as the first place where Qualcomm and Intel will really battle head to head for share. It will be Qualcomm's Snapdragon enabled devices versus Intel's Moorestown platform sometime in '09.
Secondly, as for EVDO, while US is indeed the key market, Canada, Japan, Korea and hopefully in the near future, China (CT+CU), India and elsewhere will add up to a sizeable EVDOr0/EVDOrA market. Cross-carrier compatiblity and EVDOrA uplink/downlink throughput rates across these markets will be key, in a multimode design (with GPRS/EDGE, UMTS/HSPA and WiFi).
Perhaps a giant push by China Telecom could change things, but absent that, CDMA really is an afterthought outside of the US. The largest carriers in Korea are now focused on WCDMA. Both network operators in India are set to launch giant GSM networks in early '09 and while KDDI is doing well, they have never launched devices on their network that are compatible with the rest of the world.
Like I said before though, CDMA is still important because of the US market. We will see more dual-mode devices in the coming years because of the US....but if a vendor isnt a player in the US, I doubt that all of the overseas CDMA markets will persuade them to absorb the cost of adding DO to a HSPA device.
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