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Politics : View from the Center and Left

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From: Dale Baker	5/29/2008 2:31:53 PM
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Understating Obama There are very few sure things in politics, but here's one: Barack Obama's going to dominate the black vote in November. John Kerry got 88%, and it's hard to see Obama getting less than 90% as the favorite son of a core Democratic constituency in a great Democratic year. But many polls aren't currently showing this. Take the SurveyUSA poll of Michigan getting some attention today. The poll, which has McCain up four percentage points, has Obama winning among African-Americans 62% to 26% with the balance undecided, as a reader pointed out to me yesterday. This seems just wildly unlikely as an outcome, though probably close to within the margin of error for the tiny subsample we're talking about. And in any case, African-American voters only moved to Obama in later primary polls, and even then sometimes understated their support. Whatever the cause, it's something to watch for in general election polling, and a way in which Obama's support seems at times to be seriously understated. politico.com

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