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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 375.93-1.8%Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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From: Seeker of Truth6/1/2008 1:09:38 AM
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Hi everyone. Beware the photovoltaic bug; it's contagious.

A couple of weeks ago I learned that at long last one can generate electricity from sunlight fairly economically and the manufacturers of such solar energy converters are doing well. I discovered that there are some 40-60 of them, apparently every one of them making money. I bought Canadian Solar, which is basically Chinese, at around 26. 2-3 days later when they came out with their earnings I sold at 41+. Suddenly I felt like a genius and then with cold shivers the memories of the ghastly tech crash came over me. I swore a solemn oath not to buy any of them again; that will be my first and last foray into that area.

8-9 years ago Tobago Jack sent me an email pointing out that shortly after some group of inventors comes out with revolutionary product X, another group appears that produces X' which is slightly better or X" which is the same as X but cheaper or etc. etc. Just because it is exciting, technology attracts competition. There are very few monopolies around and it's from monopolies that we can make fortunes. In the absence of technological monopolies we can own a vanishing resource such as oil and do well. Real estate may be a sort of semi-monopoly if you buy centrally located property in a city.
Since I was sitting on a huge pile of paper profits I didn't listen to Tobago Jack.
If I had listened to him I wouldn't have to be working now. I'd just be sitting in the sunshine (Nicaragua, Thailand?) occasionally giving my employees some suggestions.
Seeker of Truth
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