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Technology Stocks : Motorola (MOT)

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To: Eric L who wrote (3133)6/3/2008 12:30:34 PM
From: tbancroft   of 3436
 
This isn't my analysis, it's from an acquaintance who still believes in Motorola's future. Anyone have comments on the validity of his numbers and assumptions? If he's right, Motorola offers an amazing buy opportunity for the patient investor (although how much patience has already been used up is perhaps an issue.) The "Company A" (i.e., Motorola) data are from public sources, and I believe are accurate.

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Company "A" is being pushed by activist investors to break up or spin out a chronically underperforming division.

Company A Balance Sheet (data from public sources)
shares outstanding: 2.26 B
total assets ($B): 34.8 ($15.40/share)
cash on hand ($B): 8.61 ($3.81/share)
total debt ($B): 4.32 ($1.91/share)
revenue ($B): 36.6 ($16.20/share)
market cap ($B): 20.2 ($8.94/share)

Breaking into two companies (B & C) along business lines as suggested (splitting the balance sheet 50:50) along with data for separate divisions assembled from Co. A's Qtrly Earning Press Releases:

B C
TTM Sales ($B) 17.7 19.0 (TTM = Trailing Twelve Months)
5yr Ann. Sales Growth 11.4% 11.7% (calculated)
TTM Net Margin 11.9% -5.4%
5 yr Avg Qtrly Margin 11.7% 5.9%
5 yr Tot Net/Tot Sales 11.9% 6.3%

debt ($B) 2.16 2.16
cash ($B) 4.30 4.31
total assets ($B) 17.40 17.40
hyp. shares 2.26 2.26

For Co. B alone, with more cash than debt and low double-digit revenue growth and steady margin, what Price-to-Earnings or Price-to-Sales should it have?

P/E=15 implies market cap of $31.6B (= 15 * [TTM_Sales * TTM_Net Margin]) or $13.98/share
P/S=2.0 implies market cap of $35.4B or $15.56/share

The liquidation value (at fire sale pricing) of Co.C assets would seem to be at least $8-10B ($3.54-4.42/share).
So the combined (or break-up) value would appear to be in the range of $17.52-$19.98.
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