State by state matchup polls from CQ:
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Not that polls at this point mean that much. They will mean more after voters have had a chance to focus on the actual candidates.
Latest State-by-State General Election Match-Ups
June 4, 2008 5:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Here are our latest additions to CQ Politics state-by-state general election match-ups. There might be a little déjà vu in our repeating of the Rasmussen Reports polls in New York and Alabama, but that's because they are more recent than the ones SurveyUSA released today.
New York: Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 33 percent while Hillary Clinton leads him 59 percent to 29 percent according to a Rasmussen Reports poll released May 29. In a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18, Obama leads John McCain 48 percent to 38 percent with 14 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama has a 27 point lead among women voters and an 83 percent to 7 percent lead among black voters, who make up 14 percent of the sample. Independents prefer McCain by 13 points. Clinton was not included in the poll.
Alabama: McCain leads Obama by 60 percent to 32 percent and Clinton by 54 percent to 34 percent in a Rasmussen reports poll conducted May 27. McCain is regarded favorably by 62 percent of voters compared to 34 percent, Obama is regarded unfavorably by 61 percent compared to 36 percent who see him favorably, and Clinton's unfavorability rating is 54 percent compared to 42 percent who see her in a positive light. A SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18 has McCain leading Obama 57 percent to 34 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain blows away Obama in about every demographic except black voters.
Massachusetts: Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 41 percent with 13 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama has a 14 point advantage among women voters. In an April 25 survey, Rasmussen Reports had both Clinton and Obama are way ahead of McCain, with Clinton leading 55 percent to 36 percent and Obama by 51 percent to 39 percent.
Missouri: The race here is a tight one with Obama leading McCain 45 percent to 43 percent with 12 percent undecided, in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. McCain leads by 5 points among men, and Obama leads by 10 points among women. Independents favor McCain by 12 points. In mid-April, SurveyUSA had McCain leading Obama 50 percent to 42 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 6 had McCain ahead of Obama 47 percent to 41 percent and Clinton by 45 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.
* Previously reported:*
North Carolina: McCain leads Obama 43 percent to 40 percent with 6 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 12 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted May 28-29.If Clinton were the Democratic nominee, McCain would lead 39 percent to 34 percent with 6 percent for Barr and 21 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. Obama runs 7 points better than McCain among women voters but trials him 14 points among men. Clinton would run 10 points better among women and trail by 22 points among men. McCain leads Obama among whites by 21 points and Clinton by 11. In early May, the PPP survey had McCain ahead of Obama 49 percent to 42 percent and Clinton by 46 percent to 38 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 8 had McCain leading Obama 48 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain leads Clinton 43 percent to 40 percent with a whopping 14 percent choosing "other."
Oregon: Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 39 percent with 12 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama leads McCain by 22 points among women voters and 10 points among white voters. He has a 6point advantage among independents. Clinton was not included in the poll. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 7 had Obama leading McCain Oregon by 52 percent to 38 percent while Clinton wass ahead by 46 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.
Minnesota: Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 42 percent with 12 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. The poll did not include Clinton. McCain has an 11 point lead among men while Obama has a 19 point lead among women. Obama outpolls McCain among independents by 14 points. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 22 had both Obama and Clinton ahead of McCain by identical margins of 53 percent to 38 percent. A Minneapolis Star Tribune poll conducted May 12-15 showed Obama ahead of McCain 51 percent to 38 percent and Clinton leading McCain 49 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error was 3.6 percent. The survey said that none of the three have majority support among crucial independent voters. The Democrats have won in every presidential election in the state since 1976.
Nebraska: McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 40 percent with 11 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. McCain has a 15 point edge over Obama among men voters and runs fairly evenly with him among women. He outpolls Obama by double-digits in the 35-to-49 and over-65 age groups. SurveyUSA did not include Clinton in its poll. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 15 had McCain ahead of Obama 50 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent undecided and 6 percent preferring "other." McCain led Clinton 57 percent to 34 percent.
Connecticut: Obama leads McCain by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 29. Clinton leads McCain 48 percent to 42 percent with 6 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent not sure. Fifty-three percent of voters believe Clinton should drop out of the race. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In early March, before the controversy flared over Obama's ex-pastor Jeremiah Wright, Obama had led McCain by 12 points. Fifty-nine percent of voters say the main goal of the next President should be to bring American troops home from Iraq by the end of a first term, while 32 percent say the goal should be winning the war. Forty-seven percent believe it is unlikely that McCain could win it compared to 45 percent who believe it is likely that he could. Seventy-two percent believe that winning the war is unlikely to be something Obama would. Voters believe by 60 percent to 34 percent that Obama was likely to get the troops home in a first term, compared to 55 percent who said it was unlikely that McCain would bring them home compared to 39 percent who say he would.
Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 42 percent with 10 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. the margin of error is 4.1 percent. SurveyUSA did not poll on Clinton. A mid-April SurveyUSA poll had Mccain and Obama in a statistical tie. The two are within the margin of error of each other among men voters and Obama has an 8 point lead among women. They are also within the margin of error among white voters who make up 90 percent of the sample. Obama has a big 53 percent to 36 percent advantage among independents who make up 29 percent of the sample. A May 5 poll by Rasmussen Reports had McCain ahead of either Obama or Clinton by 47 percent to 43 percent with a 4.5 percent margin of error.
Michigan:McCain leads Obama by 41 percent to 37 percent but with a whopping 21 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 27. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. McCain has an 18 point lead among men voters while Obama leads among women by 8 points. Obama trouces McCain with voters under 34 but he does similar to Obama among voters in the 25-to-49 and over-65 age groups. McCain leads among white voters, who are 83 percent of the sample, by 43 percent to 34 percent but 23 percent are undecided. Obama leads 62 percent to 26 percent among black voters, who comprise 13 percent of the sample. A May 7 survey by Rasmussen Reports had shown a toss-up race no matter which Democrat runs against McCain. McCain had 45 percent to Obama's 44 percent with 6 percent saying they'd vote for a third-party candidate and 5 percent undecided. Clinton tied with McCain at 44 percent with 9 percent saying they'd vote for a third-party candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.
Iowa: Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 38 percent with 16 percent undecided in a poll conducted May 21-22 by SurveyUSA. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama and McCain run evenly among men voters but Obama has a big 18 point advantage among women. Among the age groups, the only big lead is the one Obama has among voters under 34. Obama also beats McCain among white voters and independents. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 13 had Obama ahead 44 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.
Kentucky: McCain leads Obama 57 percent to 32 percent while Clinton would beat McCain 51 percent to 42 percent, says a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 22. 59 percent of Kentucky voters have a favorable view of McCain against 39 percent who do not, 56 percent view Clinton favorably compared to 42 percent and only 37 percent regard Obama favorably compared to 61 percent who do not. Rasmussen has been asking voters in each state whether they think it more important to win the war in Iraq or bring American troops home by the end of the next President's first term. The outcome here is closer than a lot of other states which favor the bring-the-troops home goal by larger margins. Fifty percent say bring them home; 41 percent say win the war. Forty-eight percent believe McCain was likely to achieve victory compared to 20 percent for Obama. Fifty-two percent believe Obama is more likely to bring the troops home compared to 44 percent for McCain.
Arizona:Guess who's ahead in Arizona? McCain leads Obama 51 to 36 percent with 11 percent undecided and Clinton by 51 percent to 36 percent with 12 percent undecided in a poll conducted May 12-20 by the Behavior Research Center of Arizona. Margin of error is 4 points. Either Democrats runs very closely with McCain among independents and the pollster says that if the Democratic candidate remains competitive among independents, McCain could find himself in a horse race in his home state.
New Hampshire: Two recent polls conflict. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 21 shows Obama ahead of McCain 48 percent to 43 percent with 6 percent preferring other and 3 percent undecided. Clinton leads McCain 51 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent preferring other and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. An earlier poll by Dartmouth College's Rockefeller Center had McCain leading Obama 41.8 percent to 39.3 percent with 18 percent undecided, and Clinton by 45.2 percent to 36.4 percent with 18.4 percent undecided. The survey was conducted April 28-May 2.
California: Two polls show either Obama or Clinton comfortably leading McCain here. Public Policy Institute of California says Obama leads McCain 54 percent to 37 percent with 7 percent undecided, in this poll conducted May 12-18. In the unlikely event Clinton was the nominee, should would be leading McCain 51 percent to 39 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 percent. Both Obama and Clinton enjoy advantages of around 20 points over McCain among independents. Rasmussen Reports: says Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 38 percent with 7 percent preferring someone else, while Clinton leads McCain 54 percent to 35 percent with 7 percent choosing "other," in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 19-20. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Nearly two-thirds of voters want the next President to bring American troops home from Iraq in four years compared to 29 percent who place more importance on winning the war. Thirty-four percent believe that is somewhat or very likely to happen under McCain while 64 percent believe it is likely to happen under Obama. Only 38 percent believe that the war could be won under McCain and 25 percent believe that for Obama.
Florida: McCain leads Obama 45 percent to 41 percent, with a 2.6 percent margin of error, in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted May 13-20. Clinton leads McCain 48 percent to 41 percent. McCain leads Obama among men voters 48 percent to 39 and they run evenly among women. Clinton would have a 17 point lead over McCain among women and run closer to him among men. Democrats split at 41 percent each in their preference for Obama or Clinton, but ominously for Obama, Clinton supporters say they would back him against McCain by only a 43 percent to 36 percent margin. Floridians split on whether they trust McCain or Obama more to handle the economy, they trust McCain more on Iraq by 10 points and on terrorism by 24 points. Obama bests McCain on health care by 13 points. In a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 19, McCain led Obama 50 percent to 40 percent with 6 percent preferring "other" than 3 percent undecided. Clinton led McCain 47 percent to 41 percent.
Ohio: A number of polls portray this key state differently. Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 39 percent with 13 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama has a 13 point advantage among women voters. This contrasts with a Quinnipiac University poll conducted May 13-20)conducted May 13-20 in which McCain led Obama 44 percent to 40 percent, with a 2.8 percent margin of error. Clinton led McCain 48 percent to 41 percent. McCain leads Obama among men voters 47 percent to 39 percent, while Obama has a bare 42 percent to 40 percent advantage among women. By contrast, Clinton runs evenly with McCain among men and leads him by 16 points among women voters. Clinton backers say they would support Obama over McCain by only a 50 percent to 26 percent margin. Voters trust Obama more than McCain by 6 points on the economy and McCain by 14 percent over Obama on Iraq. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 15 had Obama locked with McCain at 45 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. If Clinton were to stage a miracle and become the nominee, she'd be leading McCain 50 percent to 43 percent.
Pennsylvania:Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 40 percent with a 2.4 percent margin of error, in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted May 13-20. Clinton is ahead 50 percent to 37 percent. McCain and Obama split men voters while Obama leads McCain by 12 points among women. Clinton would also run close to McCain among men but has a 26 point advantage among women. Democrats who back Clinton say they would support Obama over McCain by only a 51 percent to 32 percent margin. They trust Obama more on the economy by 11 points and favor McCain on Iraq by 6 points. In a SurveyUSA poll) conducted May 16-18,Obama has a 48 percent to 40 percent lead over McCain with 12 percent undecided.
Virginia: Obama is leading McCain 49 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. The two run closely among men but Obama has a 11 point edge among women voters. Obama maintains a big lead over McCain among voters under 34 just as McCain bests Obama among voters over 65. The rest are relatively evenly divided. McCain has a 17 point lead among whites who make up 72 percent of the sample, while Obama leads 92 percent to 7 percent among black voters who make up 18 percent. Obama has a 4 point lead among independents. Rasmussen Reports had McCain ahead of Obama 47 percent to 44 percent in a poll conducted May 8. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. A month earlier, McCain had led Obama by 11.
Colorado:Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent undecided and 5 percent preferring someone else, in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 19. The two were in a statistical dead heat in Rasmussen's last poll conducted mid-April. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic nominee, McCain would be leading her 47 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent preferring other. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama is viewed favorably by 55 percent of voters, McCain by 51 percent and Clinton by 44 percent. Forty-one percent of voters name the economy as the top issue with Iraq second at 21 percent. Fifty-four percent of voters favor the goal of getting the troops home from Iraq before the end of the next President's term, compared to 39 percent who want to win it. Forty-four percent of voters say that if McCain is president he is very or somewhat likely to win the war in Iraq compared to 20 percent who say that of Obama. Thirty-five percent believe that it is very or somewhat likely that McCain as President would have American troops out of Iraq by the end of his first term, but 60 percent believe Obama would bring them home in that timeframe.
New Mexico: Two polls from about the same time period conflict. McCain and Obama run dead even at 44 percent each with 12 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. McCain has a big 52 percent to 37 percent lead among white voters (49 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 51 percent to 40 percent among Hispanic voters (39 percent of the sample). McCain has more solid support among Republicans than Obama does among Democrats while McCain polls 13 points better than Obama among independents. In mid-April, McCain led Obama in this poll by 50 percent to 44 percent. However, a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 14 had Obama ahead of McCain 51 percent to 40 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided, and Clinton ahead 47 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent choosing other and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.
Alaska: McCain leads Obama 51 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent undecided and preferring someone else, in a Rasmussen survey conducted May 14. He leads Clinton 53 percent to 36 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 57 percent of voters compared to 42 percent; Obama is viewed favorably by 52 percent compared to 46 percent; and, Clinton is viewed negatively by 58 percent to 40 percent.
Arkansas: Rasmussen Reports says in a survey conducted May 12 McCain leads Obama 53 percent to 37 percent, while Clinton bests McCain 53 percent to 39 percent in the state where she was First Lady. McCain's margin over Obama is due to 92 percent support among fellow Republicans, 38 percent support from Democrats and 24 percent from unaffiliated voters. Obama's favorability rating here is only 38 percent. McCain's is 57 percent and Clinton's is 60 percent. Margin of error is 4.5 percent.
Washington state: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 40 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 12, compared to the 5 point lead he held in the previous poll. Obama's favorability rating is 57 percent, while McCain's is 49 percent - which, as in Iowa, is a 7 point drop for him. A SurveyUSA poll conducted May 12 had Obama ahead 54 to 42 percent with a 3.9 percent margin of error. Clinton leads McCain by 49 percent to 45 percent. Obama runs far ahead of McCain on the issues of the economy, environment, health care and Iraq while McCain leads Obama by a wide margin on the issues of terrorism and immigration. Margin of error is 4.5 percent.
Oregon: Obama leads McCain in a general election match-up for Oregon by 52 percent to 38 percent while Clinton is ahead by 46 percent to 40 percent in a May 7 survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports.) The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's margin represents a gain of 8 points since March in this poll and part of the reason is that McCain gets the backing of only 68 percent of voters in his own party. Obama's favorability rating is 61 percent, McCain's is 52 percent and Clinton's is 47 percent. In mid-April, SurveyUSA had Obama ahead 51 percent to 42 percent while Clinton ran statistically even with McCain.
Georgia: McCain leads Obama 53 percent to 39 percent and Clinton by 48 percent to 37 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain holds big leads among men voters against either Democrat. McCain is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters, down 5 points since March. Obama is viewed favorably by 43 percent and Clinton by 39 percent.
Indiana: Although this is a solid "red" state in presidential elections, a poll by the Mike Downs Center on Indiana Politics show both Clinton and Obama are competitive with McCain. She leads 48 percent to 45 percent and Obama leads 48 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. In previous polls, McCain led Obama 51 percent to 43 percent and Clinton by 52 percent to 41 percent, according to Research 2000 poll conducted April 21-24. An Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll conducted April 20-23 had Obama ahead of McCain 49 percent to 41 percent and Clinton even with him at 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent.
New Jersey: Both Obama and Clinton are comfortably ahead of McCain in a New Jersey general election match-up, but a [Monmouth University/Gannett poll] ound suggestions of what it described as "buyers' remorse" in the 10-point victory the state's Democrats gave Clinton in its Feb. 5 primary. Obama leads McCain by 56 percent to 32 percent and Clinton is ahead by 52 percent to 38 percent. But now, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they favor Obama over Clinton by 45 percent to 38 percent. Obama's favorability ratings is 58 percent to 27 percent, Clinton's is 46 percent to 43 percent and McCain comes out on the negative side with 45 percent who view him unfavorably compared to 39 percent.
Nevada: McCain leads both Clinton and Obama in a general election match-up in Nevada, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 21. McCain is ahead of Obama 48 percent to 43 percent and Clinton by 49 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. Last month, Obama led McCain by four and the race with Clinton was a dead heat. Rasmussen notes that Nevada has voted with the winner in the last seven elections, and in the last four, the winning margin was no larger than 4 points.
Louisiana: McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 41 percent and Clinton by 58 percent to 36 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted April 9. McCain is viewed favorably by 64 percent of voters, Obama by 53 percent and Clinton by 37 percent.
Alaska: McCain leads Clinton by 25 points and Obama by 48 percent to 43 percent, with a 4.5 percent margin of error, in a poll conducted April 7. McCain's favorable rating is 63 percent, Obama's is 55 percent and Clinton's is 35 percent.
Montana: McCain leads Obama by 48 percent to 43 percent, and is way ahead of Clinton, 54 percent to 36 percent, according to a poll conducted April 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Rasmussen was impressed by Obama's showing given George W. Bush's 25 point victory in 2004. McCain is viewed favorably by 56 percent of voters, Obama by 54 percent and Clinton by 42 percent.
Kansas:McCain leads Clinton 55 percent to 36 percent and Obama by 51 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. McCain beats Clinton in all age groups and lags Obama only among voters under 34. He has leads each Democrat by more than 20 points among white voters who made up 87 percent of the sample. More than half of Kansans say they attend religious services regular and McCain leads by 2-to-1 among them. Twenty-seven percent describe themselves as Evangelicals and, there, McCain's leads are in the 3-to-1 range. Thirty-six percent of voters cite the economy as the top issue and, in this state, McCain leads Clinton 54 percent to 38 percent and Obama by roughly the same amount as the poll's margin of error. Among the 12 percent of voters most concerned about Iraq, Clinton and Obama lead McCain but by less than in some other states (an 11 point edge for Clinton and 9 points for Obama). Immigration was cited by 11 percent and McCain's leads are 3-to-1. His lead on fighting terrorism among the 7 percent of voters who placed that first is 76 percent to 22 percent over Clinton and 87 percent to 11 percent over Obama.
Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 36 percent, says a Middle Tennessee State University poll conducted Feb. 11-23.. His margin over Clinton is smaller, 45 percent to 38 percent. The poll says that figure applies to Tennessee adults. When "likely voters" are asked, the margin over Obama is 53 percent to 37 percent. Mike Huckabee also leads Obama or Clinton. The poll says appears to indicate that the margin of error is as high as 8 percent.
Iowa: Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 38 percent with 16 percent undecided in a poll conducted May 21-22 by SurveyUSA. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama and McCain run evenly among men voters but Obama has a big 18 point advantage among women. Among the age groups, the only big lead is the one Obama has among voters under 34. Obama also beats McCain among white voters and independents. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 13 had Obama ahead 44 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.
Kentucky: McCain leads Obama 57 percent to 32 percent while Clinton would beat McCain 51 percent to 42 percent, says a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 22. 59 percent of Kentucky voters have a favorable view of McCain against 39 percent who do not, 56 percent view Clinton favorably compared to 42 percent and only 37 percent regard Obama favorably compared to 61 percent who do not. Rasmussen has been asking voters in each state whether they think it more important to win the war in Iraq or bring American troops home by the end of the next President's first term. The outcome here is closer than a lot of other states which favor the bring-the-troops home goal by larger margins. Fifty percent say bring them home; 41 percent say win the war. Forty-eight percent believe McCain was likely to achieve victory compared to 20 percent for Obama. Fifty-two percent believe Obama is more likely to bring the troops home compared to 44 percent for McCain.
Minnesota: Both Obama and lead McCain 53 percent to 38 percent, in this Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 22. Obama is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters, Clinton by 55 percent and McCain by 52 percent. Fifty-five percent of voters want the next President to bring U.S. troops home from Iraq in the next four years, while 36 percent want to win the war. Forty-six percent think winning the war is likely under McCain compared to 23 percent for Obama, but 67 percent believe Obama will achieve the majority's wishes by bringing the troops home compared to 40 percent for McCain. A Minneapolis Star Tribune poll conducted May 12-15 shows Obama ahead of McCain 51 percent to 38 percent and Clinton leading McCain 49 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error is 3.6 percent. The survey said that none of the three have majority support among crucial independent voters. The Democrats have won in every presidential election in the state since 1976.
Arizona:Guess who's ahead in Arizona? McCain leads Obama 51 to 36 percent with 11 percent undecided and Clinton by 51 percent to 36 percent with 12 percent undecided in a poll conducted May 12-20 by the Behavior Research Center of Arizona. Margin of error is 4 points. Either Democrats runs very closely with McCain among independents and the pollster says that if the Democratic candidate remains competitive among independents, McCain could find himself in a horse race in his home state.
Montana:McCain leads Obama 47 to 39 percent with 14 percent undecided and Clinton by 51 percent to 40 percent and 9 percent undecided, in a poll conducted May 19-20 by Mason-Dixon for Lee Newspapers. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain leads Obama by 13 points among men and 7 points among women. Forty-six percent of voters have a favorable view of McCain against 35 percent who do not, 41 percent view Obama favorably compared to 38 percent and Clinton scrapes bottom with only 29 percent having a favorable view of her against 50 percent who do not. Democrats have only carried Montana three times since 1948, the year in which Harry Truman won, according to the Missoulian newspaper. The only other Democrats to win were Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and Bill Clinton in 1992, when independent Ross Perot picked up a quarter of the votes and helped him to victory over the first George Bush.
New Hampshire: McCain leads Obama 41.8 percent to 39.3 percent with 18 percent undecided, and Clinton by 45.2 percent to 36.4 percent with 18.4 percent undecided in a survey conducted April 28-May 2 by Dartmouth College's Rockefeller Center.
California: Two polls show either Obama or Clinton comfortably leading McCain here. Public Policy Institute of California says Obama leads McCain 54 percent to 37 percent with 7 percent undecided, in this poll conducted May 12-18. In the unlikely event Clinton was the nominee, should would be leading McCain 51 percent to 39 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 percent. Both Obama and Clinton enjoy advantages of around 20 points over McCain among independents. Rasmussen Reports: says Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 38 percent with 7 percent preferring someone else, while Clinton leads McCain 54 percent to 35 percent with 7 percent choosing "other," in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 19-20. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Nearly two-thirds of voters want the next President to bring American troops home from Iraq in four years compared to 29 percent who place more importance on winning the war. Thirty-four percent believe that is somewhat or very likely to happen under McCain while 64 percent believe it is likely to happen under Obama. Only 38 percent believe that the war could be won under McCain and 25 percent believe that for Obama.
Florida: McCain leads Obama 45 percent to 41 percent, with a 2.6 percent margin of error, in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted May 13-20. Clinton leads McCain 48 percent to 41 percent. McCain leads Obama among men voters 48 percent to 39 and they run evenly among women. Clinton would have a 17 point lead over McCain among women and run closer to him among men. Democrats split at 41 percent each in their preference for Obama or Clinton, but ominously for Obama, Clinton supporters say they would back him against McCain by only a 43 percent to 36 percent margin. Floridians split on whether they trust McCain or Obama more to handle the economy, they trust McCain more on Iraq by 10 points and on terrorism by 24 points. Obama bests McCain on health care by 13 points. In a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 19, McCain led Obama 50 percent to 40 percent with 6 percent preferring "other" than 3 percent undecided. Clinton led McCain 47 percent to 41 percent.
Ohio: McCain leads Obama 44 percent to 40 percent, with a 2.8 percent margin of error, in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted May 13-20. Clinton leads McCain 48 percent to 41 percent. McCain leads Obama among men voters 47 percent to 39 percent, while Obama has a bare 42 percent to 40 percent advantage among women. By contrast, Clinton runs evenly with McCain among men and leads him by 16 points among women voters. Clinton backers say they would support Obama over McCain by only a 50 percent to 26 percent margin. Voters trust Obama more than McCain by 6 points on the economy and McCain by 14 percent over Obama on Iraq. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 15 had Obama locked with McCain at 45 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. If Clinton were to stage a miracle and become the nominee, she'd be leading McCain 50 percent to 43 percent.
Pennsylvania:Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 40 percent with a 2.4 percent margin of error, in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted May 13-20. Clinton is ahead 50 percent to 37 percent. McCain and Obama split men voters while Obama leads McCain by 12 points among women. Clinton would also run close to McCain among men but has a 26 point advantage among women. Democrats who back Clinton say they would support Obama over McCain by only a 51 percent to 32 percent margin. They trust Obama more on the economy by 11 points and favor McCain on Iraq by 6 points. In a SurveyUSA poll) conducted May 16-18,Obama has a 48 percent to 40 percent lead over McCain with 12 percent undecided.
Virginia: Obama is leading McCain 49 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. The two run closely among men but Obama has a 11 point edge among women voters. Obama maintains a big lead over McCain among voters under 34 just as McCain bests Obama among voters over 65. The rest are relatively evenly divided. McCain has a 17 point lead among whites who make up 72 percent of the sample, while Obama leads 92 percent to 7 percent among black voters who make up 18 percent. Obama has a 4 point lead among independents. Rasmussen Reports had McCain ahead of Obama 47 percent to 44 percent in a poll conducted May 8. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. A month earlier, McCain had led Obama by 11.
Colorado:Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent undecided and 5 percent preferring someone else, in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 19. The two were in a statistical dead heat in Rasmussen's last poll conducted mid-April. If Clinton were the Democratic nominee, McCain would be leading her 47 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent preferring other. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama is viewed favorably by 55 percent of voters, McCain by 51 percent and Clinton by 44 percent. Forty-one percent of voters name the economy as the top issue with Iraq second at 21 percent. Fifty-four percent of voters favor the goal of getting the troops home from Iraq before the end of the next President's term, compared to 39 percent who want to win it. Forty-four percent of voters say that if McCain is president he is very or somewhat likely to win the war in Iraq compared to 20 percent who say that of Obama. Thirty-five percent believe that it is very or somewhat likely that McCain as President would have American troops out of Iraq by the end of his first term, but 60 percent believe Obama would bring them home in that timeframe.
New Mexico: McCain and Obama run dead even at 44 percent each with 12 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. McCain has a big 52 percent to 37 percent lead among white voters (49 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 51 percent to 40 percent among Hispanic voters (39 percent of the sample). McCain has more solid support among Republicans than Obama does among Democrats while McCain polls 13 points better than Obama among independents. In mid-April, McCain led Obama in this poll by 50 percent to 44 percent.
Nebraska: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent undecided and 6 percent preferring "other," in a survey conducted May 15 by Rasmussen Reports. McCain leads Clinton 57 percent to 34 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 61 percent of voters compared to 37 percent; Obama is viewed Unfavorably by 50 percent compared to 49 percent; and Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 59 percent compared to 39 percent.
Alaska: McCain leads Obama 51 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent undecided and preferring someone else, in a Rasmussen survey conducted May 14. He leads Clinton 53 percent to 36 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 57 percent of voters compared to 42 percent; Obama is viewed favorably by 52 percent compared to 46 percent; and, Clinton is viewed negatively by 58 percent to 40 percent.
Arkansas: Rasmussen Reports says in a survey conducted May 12 McCain leads Obama 53 percent to 37 percent, while Clinton bests McCain 53 percent to 39 percent in the state where she was First Lady. McCain's margin over Obama is due to 92 percent support among fellow Republicans, 38 percent support from Democrats and 24 percent from unaffiliated voters. Obama's favorability rating here is only 38 percent. McCain's is 57 percent and Clinton's is 60 percent. Margin of error is 4.5 percent.
Washington state: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 40 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 12, compared to the 5 point lead he held in the previous poll. Obama's favorability rating is 57 percent, while McCain's is 49 percent - which, as in Iowa, is a 7 point drop for him. A SurveyUSA poll conducted May 12 had Obama ahead 54 to 42 percent with a 3.9 percent margin of error. Clinton leads McCain by 49 percent to 45 percent. Obama runs far ahead of McCain on the issues of the economy, environment, health care and Iraq while McCain leads Obama by a wide margin on the issues of terrorism and immigration. Margin of error is 4.5 percent.
North Carolina:The race between Obama and McCain is also within the margin of error here in a Rasmussen poll conducted May 8, with McCain leading Obama 48 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain leads Clinton 43 percent to 40 percent with a whopping 14 percent choosing "other." Obama does best among voters making less than $20,000 a year or more than $75,000 while McCain does best among middle-income voters. McCain is viewed favorably by 53 percent of voters while Obama's score is 51 percent. Feelings run stronger in both directions about Obama: 37 percent have a very favorable opinion of him while 30 percent have a very unfavorable opinion, compared to 18 percent and 23 percent respectively for McCain. Clinton's favorable vote is 46 percent. A May 8-9 survey by Public Policy Polling shows McCain ahead by a bigger margin, though not a lead that's out of reach. McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 42 percent and Clinton by 46 percent to 38 percent with a 4 percent margin of error.
Oregon: Obama leads McCain in a general election match-up for Oregon by 52 percent to 38 percent while Clinton is ahead by 46 percent to 40 percent in a May 7 survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports.) The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's margin represents a gain of 8 points since March in this poll and part of the reason is that McCain gets the backing of only 68 percent of voters in his own party. Obama's favorability rating is 61 percent, McCain's is 52 percent and Clinton's is 47 percent. In mid-April, SurveyUSA had Obama ahead 51 percent to 42 percent while Clinton ran statistically even with McCain.
Missouri: McCain runs ahead of Obama 47 percent to 41 percent and Clinton by 45 percent to 43 percent in this swing state, according to a Rasmussen reports survey conducted May 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In late March, Rasmussen had McCain over Obama 53 percent to 38 percent and ahead of Clinton 50 percent to 41 percent. McCain's favorability rating is 55 percent, Obama's is 46 percent and Clinton's is 45 percent. In mid-April, SurveyUSA said Clinton was leading McCain 47 percent to 46 percent and McCain was leading Obama by 50 percent to 42 percent, with a margin of error of 4.3 percent.
Georgia: McCain leads Obama 53 percent to 39 percent and Clinton by 48 percent to 37 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain holds big leads among men voters against either Democrat. McCain is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters, down 5 points since March. Obama is viewed favorably by 43 percent and Clinton by 39 percent.
Wisconsin: McCain holds 47 percent to 43 percent leads over either Clinton or Obama, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 5. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain and Obama were a toss-up in Rasmussen's March poll while McCain led Clinton by 11 points. A SurveyUSA poll conducted April 11-13 had McCain and Clinton tied and Obama ahead by 3 points, within the margin of error. McCain is viewed favorably by 58 percent of voters and unfavorably by 40 percent; Obama has 51 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable; and, Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 52 percent compared to the 46 percent who have positive views of her.
Indiana: Although this is a solid "red" state in presidential elections, a poll by the Mike Downs Center on Indiana Politics show both Clinton and Obama are competitive with McCain. She leads 48 percent to 45 percent and Obama leads 48 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. In previous polls, McCain led Obama 51 percent to 43 percent and Clinton by 52 percent to 41 percent, according to Research 2000 poll conducted April 21-24. An Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll conducted April 20-23 had Obama ahead of McCain 49 percent to 41 percent and Clinton even with him at 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent.
New Jersey: Both Obama and Clinton are comfortably ahead of McCain in a New Jersey general election match-up, but a [Monmouth University/Gannett poll] found suggestions of what it described as "buyers' remorse" in the 10-point victory the state's Democrats gave Clinton in its Feb. 5 primary. Obama leads John McCain by 56 percent to 32 percent and Clinton is ahead by 52 percent to 38 percent. But now, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they favor Obama over Clinton by 45 percent to 38 percent. Obama's favorability ratings is 58 percent to 27 percent, Clinton's is 46 percent to 43 percent and McCain comes out on the negative side with 45 percent who view him unfavorably compared to 39 percent.
Massachusetts: No surprise here. Both Clinton and Obama are way ahead of McCain, with Clinton leading 55 percent to 36 percent and Obama by 51 percent to 39 percent, in a Rasmussen Reports poll released April 25. Among men voters, the match-ups are close, but among women the Democrats have wide leads. Obama's favorability rating is 59 percent, Clinton's is 58 percent, and McCain's is 57 percent. Forty-nine percent say the economy is the top issue compared to 24 percent who cite Iraq. Massachusetts voters do not give much of a boost to their onetime favorite son Mitt Romney as a potential McCain running mate. Forty three percent don't think McCain should choose Romney while 34 percent say they do. In a SurveyUSA poll conducted April 11-13 linton runs ahead of McCain 56 percent to 41 percent, while Obama is in a statistical dead heat with McCain, leading him 48 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. On Iraq, named as the top issue by 18 percent, both Democrats lead McCain by more than 40 points.
Nevada: McCain leads both Clinton and Obama in a general election match-up in Nevada, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 21. McCain is ahead of Obama 48 percent to 43 percent and Clinton by 49 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. Last month, Obama led McCain by four and the race with Clinton was a dead heat.
Louisiana: McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 41 percent and Clinton by 58 percent to 36 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted April 9. McCain is viewed favorably by 64 percent of voters, Obama by 53 percent and Clinton by 37 percent.
Alaska: McCain leads Clinton by 25 points and Obama by 48 percent to 43 percent, with a 4.5 percent margin of error, in a poll conducted April 7. McCain's favorable rating is 63 percent, Obama's is 55 percent and Clinton's is 35 percent.
Montana: McCain leads Obama by 48 percent to 43 percent, and is way ahead of Clinton, 54 percent to 36 percent, according to a poll conducted April 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Rasmussen was impressed by Obama's showing given George W. Bush's 25 point victory in 2004. McCain is viewed favorably by 56 percent of voters, Obama by 54 percent and Clinton by 42 percent.
Connecticut: Obama has a 52 percent to 35 percent lead over McCain in Connecticut, while Clinton leads McCain by only 45 percent to 42 percent, according to a [Quinnipiac University poll]conducted March 19-24. The margin of error is 2.4 percent. These results are similar to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted in mid-March. A good deal of Obama's strength comes from independents who favor him 48 percent to 35 percent and voters under 45 who back him by 63 percent to 35 percent. Obama also has a 9 point lead among white voters. - The interesting thing about this poll is the extent to which it mirrors what the national polls are saying about the challenges facing Clinton. Reflecting the national findings of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released yesterday, Clinton suffers in Connecticut from high negatives, with 47 percent of voters viewing her unfavorably to 46 percent who view her favorably. Obama's favorability rating is 59 to 24 percent and McCain's is 52 percent to 31 percent. Democrats say Obama would be a good president by a 56 percent to 28 percent margin with 31 percent of his supporters citing his fresh ideas and 19 percent citing his intelligence. Democrats say Clinton would be a good president by a 49 percent to 43 percent with 48 percent of her supporters pointing to her experience and 27 percent to her intelligence. But again, this poll mirrors a finding about Clinton that has shown up in national polls as well. Of her critics, 25 percent say she is dishonest. USAToday/Gallup had did a March 14-16 survey in which 44 percent considered her honest and trustworthy while 53 percent did not.
Nevada: Obama and Clinton have small but statistically insignificant leads over McCain, according to a Rasmussen Reports conducted March 19. Obama leads 45 percent to 41 percent while Clinton is ahead 44 percent to 43 percent, both within a 4.5 percent margin of error. In mid-February, Obama had led 50 percent to 38 percent, while McCain led Clinton 49 percent to 40 percent, which is reflective of the slide Obama has taken in state and national polls during March. Rasmussen notes that Nevada has voted with the winner in the last seven elections, and in the last four, the winning margin was no larger than 4 points. Thirty-nine percent of Nevadans say the economy is the top issue and only 17 percent of them rate it as good or excellent.
Kansas:McCain leads Clinton 55 percent to 36 percent and Obama by 51 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. McCain beats Clinton in all age groups and lags Obama only among voters under 34. He has leads each Democrat by more than 20 points among white voters who made up 87 percent of the sample. More than half of Kansans say they attend religious services regular and McCain leads by 2-to-1 among them. Twenty-seven percent describe themselves as Evangelicals and, there, McCain's leads are in the 3-to-1 range. Thirty-six percent of voters cite the economy as the top issue and, in this state, McCain leads Clinton 54 percent to 38 percent and Obama by roughly the same amount as the poll's margin of error. Among the 12 percent of voters most concerned about Iraq, Clinton and Obama lead McCain but by less than in some other states (an 11 point edge for Clinton and 9 points for Obama). Immigration was cited by 11 percent and McCain's leads are 3-to-1. His lead on fighting terrorism among the 7 percent of voters who placed that first is 76 percent to 22 percent over Clinton and 87 percent to 11 percent over Obama.
Kentucky: McCain blows away Obama by a 2-to-1 margin (64 percent to 28 percent) and leads Clinton 53 percent to 43 percent in the quest for Kentucky's 8 electoral votes. This SurveyUSA poll was also conducted March 14-16 and the margin of error is 4.3 percent. Here, McCain trails Clinton among voters under 34, but wins in all other age groups by significant margins. He has better than 2-to-1 leads over Obama in every age group. Thirty-nine percent of voters chose the economy as the top issue and they favored McCain by 54 percent to 43 percent over Clinton, and by the wide margin over Obama that he enjoys in almost every category of this poll. Iraq was cited as the top issue by 14 percent and they heavily favored McCain over either Democrat and, as in Missouri, the same was true on the issue of terrorism, which was named by 11 percent. The actual poll figure on terrorism for McCain vs. Obama was 93 percent to 3 percent.
Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 36 percent, says a Middle Tennessee State University poll conducted Feb. 11-23.. His margin over Clinton is smaller, 45 percent to 38 percent. The poll says that figure applies to Tennessee adults. When "likely voters" are asked, the margin over Obama is 53 percent to 37 percent. Mike Huckabee also leads Obama or Clinton. The poll says appears to indicate that the margin of error is as high as 8 percent. |
