Yes, saw those posts at the time, interesting stuff ... seems like interest rates and money supply would be quite connected, though? ... i realise they are considered two separate ways of dicking around with the system, but at root can't be too far apart - if there's plenty of money around it won't cost much to rent some, and when there's a shortage the rent goes up, not lockstep for sure but there is correlation
Took a while to download the video on dialup - in communications, for some of us it's still the eighties -g- ... good points, but they are not all the relevant points - non-usd fiat systems have their own issues, seems to me ... renminbi will rise, and has been rising, for sure, however some of the others quoted look like they could peak out, thinking of the euro here, it's an oddball thing really, not all those countries agree on everything ... the chinese may discover the business cycle in due course as well, plus there's always the black swan stuff, things we never expected - they won't all be negative for the usd, on balance probably downers though
It's not necessary for the US dollar index to fall, for gold to rise, imho ... what can happen is the euro at some point will fall in terms of gold just a little faster than it will fall against usd, so you can have 'usd rising' at the same time as you have 'gold up', since we quote gold in US dollars, not the US dollar index
'on top of a financial/credit crisis, an outrageous current account deficit, an already weak economy, housing, consumer, etc'
.. all very related issues, stemming from a move to a finance-related economy, from a manufacturing powerhouse, over the course of forty years or so ... greatly increased use of credit, arguably overuse, misuse
' all of which in 1980 was nothing like today'
... well, maybe similar in nature, but far more advanced in degree now? ... gone further down the same road, far enough to be no longer a creditor nation, but a debtor
'IMO, Volcker-like actions by the FED would turn an inflationary recession into a deflationary depression like the 30's'
... absolutely, agreed completely, the system has been jiggled and poked into lasting so long between cleaner-outer recessions that the only politically possible course now is to keep jiggling and poking, try to pass the problem on to the next set of admin who have to deal with it ... you've got a fiat currency, which wouldn't be the easiest thing to manage in the best of times, and you're having human beings operate it? - hah, good luck with that ... best to take heart in the fact that, as long as you can keep things rolling this way your debt will be easier to service - the opposite is true the moment rates start to rise
'USDX = 50.14348112 × EURUSD-0.576 × USDJPY0.136 × GBPUSD-0.119 × USDCAD0.091 × USDSEK0.042 × USDCHF0.036'
akmos.com
Euro far too represented in this index, then sterling and krona on top - there are only yen and loonies in it to represent the rest of the world, should have pesos, pesetas, yuan, reales, schillings, dinars, rupees, rubles, in proportions that reflect trade |
