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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners
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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (42847)6/6/2008 11:54:54 AM
From: Bill Harmond  Read Replies (1) of 57684
 
09:07 ECONX Why the unemployment rate jumped

The increase in the unemployment rate from 5.0% to 5.5% was caused primarily by an increase in the size of the labor force and the number of people saying they are unemployed and seeking work. The increase in the unemployment rate is not due to a downtrend in the number of employed. There was a decline in employed levels in May, but over the past two months, the number of employed persons in the household survey actually rose 77,000 even while the unemployment rate jumped from 5.1% to 5.5%... Thus, the jump in the unemployment rate is not a reflection of lower employment levels (or an indication that the nonfarm payroll data are misleading). It is due either to a large number of people re-entering the labor force and being counted as unemployed, or to a one-month aberrant swing in the data. Our bet would be on a combination of the two... The jump in the unemployment rate has no direct implications for other economic data as it reflects more people seeking work rather than a downtrend in the level of employment... Note: The unemployment rate is determined by a household survey that is different from the hard data in business establishment data that produces the nonfarm payrolls, and is therefore considered less important in terms of assessing overall economic conditions.
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