I Think California is Headed Towards Something That Will Feel like a Depression.
When I think about the growth in LA, Orange, and SD counties that took place in the last 50 years, and how nearly all of that growth was made possible by cheap gasoline, I cannot imagine how that massive land area which is now a gigantic suburb will handle 6.00 dollar gasoline. And then 8.00 dollar gasoline. "So Cal" is totally naked, as it stands before the freight train of oil depletion. It has no virtually no hedge whatsoever in the form of public transport, or walkable cities. And this is all unfolding on top of the bursting of an historic housing bubble? I practically have to sit down, because just thinking about it makes me dizzy.
I know So Cal extremely well. I also know the Central Valley, and the SF Bay area. But I have driven alot of miles in LA, Orange, and SD counties, and lived there several times. The SD Trolley system is a good start, and so is the LA Light Rail. I do wonder of Americans from other parts of the country however can fathom the great expanses however in these 3 counties and how the distances and the houses just go on, and on forever. The bottom line is that the slice of the population served by public transport in So Cal is tiny.
In addition, how are municipalities going to handle the twin bombs of the housing bust, and, permanently high oil prices? They are all uber-leveraged to the auto complex as well.
Meanwhile, in the Central Valley, where you would think some moderate support would be flowing through from the boom in agricultural commodities, the housing bust is turning places like Merced and Stockton into Hoovervilles. I'm wondering if there will eventually be a buyable bottom there. But one rather enormous, and scary development that looms is that--after 2 decades of warnings--it does look like CA is going to finally have a serious water problem. In fact, it looks to me like this time it could overtake the State's ability to deal with it.
Yikes.
Gregor |
