The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: coachbobknight who wrote (125126)	6/9/2008 4:52:22 PM
From: Johnny_Blaze_420	Read Replies (3) of 306849

Oil short coming up soon... Fed has hands tied with half it's book lent out and unable to cut rates anymore. Inflation is biggest concern. I anticipate a hike after the election. The hawkish tone will continue this week... i've seen 30% drops in listing prices over the last 10 months and you still need a 30% down payment to even qualify for the places and that is with 6 figure income... i doubt we see a bottom in R/E for at least 12-18 months. Commercial cap rates just starting to inch up. If we have some trouble getting non recourse loans with out balance sheet, i can only imagine what the small guy is going through. The bond insurer downgrade didn't get too much press but you can see the underacpitlized banks taking it pretty hard. We'll see a regional bank fail within 60 days imo, probably right after the quarter ends... Staying short on every bounch unless we break 13k and 1440 and stay there... hope all is well.

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