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Non-Tech : Amati investors

AMTX 1.315

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3:59 PM EST

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To: SteveG who wrote (27209)	10/16/1997 4:29:00 PM
From: trouthead	of 31386

Steve, Thanks for pointing out your response to your mistakes. Now here's what I think about content of your original response. There are people who will pay and there are people who won't. There will always be someone for whom it is not worth it. In the early adoption phase the price will be higher than even some of us will be willing to pay. But as deployment increases 2 things will happen. 1 the price will come down and 2 there will be more and more reasons to have a highbandwidth connection. As the connection speed increases, more people will have web pages. And those webpages will be filled with graphics, video and sound. 2 years ago there were a handful of gardening pages now there are hundreds. Many of them are hosted on severs with 28.8 connections. It can take a frustratingly long time, sometimes several minutes to access some of these sites. Even though the total number of bytes to download is fairly small. You have to be dedicated to and very interested in the topic to wait that long for a page. Many times I am daunted and I give up and go watch TV. If I had ADSL and the host servers had ADSL. etc etc. I think you see what I mean. The need for a high bandwidth connection will feed on itself and grow exponentially. The question isn't are there any reasons to have a fast connection and who will be willing to pay, but instead how much will it cost the RBOCS to deploy. And how long will they be willing to wait to recoup the investment. From what I have been able to gather it will cost at least $1400 dollars to install and setup one customer. That is $500 for the Customer modem, $500 for the CO modem and another $400 dollars in installation a follow up service calls. At $50 a month it will take them 28 months before they make a dime. Of course they can make some of that immediately as an installation fee, but it is still a long time to wait to start making a profit. I am guessing that it is the economics of deloyment that will be the hold up. Feel free to challenge my numbers. I just made these up. There may be other costs and othere sources of revenue that I am unaware of. Thanks, bps

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