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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends
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To: Perspective who wrote (891)6/11/2008 6:21:02 PM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (2) of 3209
 
Things have changed a little the last 3 days and I can move my stop now.

Let's take a minute to put back into context the map we are following. I think every couple of weeks it is helpful to get completely away from the daily and smaller wiggle movements and remember the wider map in play -- to put in context some of the wiggle charts posted showing us entering a 3rd wave this week.

The bear map sees the run up into the May high as a trap '2' or 'B' top, which would roll over into a brother down (as a minimum) to the run down from Oct into the Jan/Mar lows.

If this map is in play, the Mar lows will not hold. As long as SPX 1376 is not violated to the upside, this bear map is favoured .



Now, look at it in a wider context and you will see some more serious implications looking out 2-4 years. They key now is whether or not the SPX up channel holds (purple indicator below). We are still a ways from testing it. The blue dashed line is the same as in the above daily chart:



If we move up to violate that red dashed line, we'll switch gears and talk about upside targets.

On the down side, the more bearish map is the "big C", which has been posted here a couple of times. The "big C" says we get a 4th and 5th wave to go with the blue line above and that we go all the way back to the 2002 lows. I'll stay short as long as we are trending, but it would be foolish to say that the "big C" is in play -- just too early to say. Having said that, I have respect for the possibility of "big C".

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