Yo, no Irish wont go....
Q&A: Irish treaty referendum
Dublin is now in the EU spotlight
Ireland held a referendum on 12 June on the EU's Lisbon Treaty. It is meant to replace the defunct EU constitution, which was rejected by voters in France and the Netherlands in 2005.
Ireland was the only one of the EU's 27 member states to call a referendum on the treaty - so the stakes are high. The plan is for all 27 states to ratify the treaty by the end of this year.
What happens if Irish voters have rejected the treaty?
In the event of a No win, it is very unlikely the treaty will come into force on schedule. It requires ratification by all 27 member states - so it might have to be scrapped.
European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso says "there is no Plan B" and a No vote "would have a very negative effect for the EU".
LISBON TREATY PROGRESS
Process complete: Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia
Approved by parliament: Belgium, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Poland
Referendum: Irish Republic
Challenges: Legal objections in Czech Republic, UK
No firm date: Cyprus, Netherlands (held up by referendum proposal), Italy (new government), Spain (new government), Sweden
There is a precedent for holding a referendum re-run in Ireland. Irish voters rejected the Treaty of Nice narrowly in 2001, but a year later a second referendum was held and the Yes camp won.
But trying such a manoeuvre again could well provoke howls of protest. It could be portrayed as EU bullying of a small member state, especially as French and Dutch voters had previously rejected the constitution, and were not asked to vote again.
The countries that have fully ratified the Lisbon Treaty - 14 so far - would object to any changes proposed to secure an Irish Yes vote.
There is no doubt that an Irish No would be vexing for many EU leaders, who feel the EU has spent more than enough time discussing institutional reform.
A delay would mean the Nice Treaty remaining in force, postponing the streamlining of EU institutions that the Lisbon Treaty is meant to provide for the enlarged bloc of 27.
Eurosceptics in Britain and elsewhere would increase the pressure for more countries to hold referendums on the treaty or to abandon the treaty. An Irish No would also lend weight to their argument about a "democratic deficit" in the EU.
But France, which takes over the EU presidency next month, argues that an Irish No should not block ratification of Lisbon.
"We'd have to find particular ad hoc mechanisms of co-operation with the Irish... and the process of ratification would have to continue," said France's Europe Minister Jean-Pierre Jouyet.
He spoke of finding a "legal arrangement" with Ireland at the end of the ratification process.
Who is in the Yes camp?
The government parties of Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats. The other coalition partner, the Green Party, is divided on the treaty.
The main opposition parties - Fine Gael and Labour - also back the treaty. A powerful Irish Alliance for Europe is pushing for a Yes vote. It unites many trade unionists, business people, academics and politicians.
Who is in the No camp?
A broad-spectrum coalition including Libertas, a lobby group started by businessman Declan Ganley, and a group called Coir. Sinn Fein is the only party in parliament against the treaty, but the Socialists are also against.
What does the Yes camp say about the treaty?
The treaty's supporters point to the economic benefits Ireland has enjoyed in the EU. Brussels subsidies and immigration from new member states have contributed to the prosperity of the "Celtic Tiger" - though Ireland is now feeling the impact of the global credit crunch and strong euro.
"The European market is on our doorstep," said Taoiseach (prime minister) Brian Cowen. "If we send a negative signal, I'm afraid it will be very confusing to those with whom we want to increase our trade and investment."
But even some Yes camp leaders admit they have not read the treaty in full and that there is widespread confusion about what it means for Ireland.
What does the No camp say?
Opponents argue that the Lisbon Treaty will weaken Ireland's voice in Europe, because more policy areas will come under qualified majority voting - rather than the requirement for unanimity - and because there will no longer be a commissioner from each member state.
Other issues have been raised by the No camp, which Yes lobbyists say are not directly related to the treaty. These include fears that Ireland will lose out in the world trade talks - especially the farming sector - and that it will be harmed by EU tax harmonisation. They have also raised fears that Ireland's traditional positions on abortion and neutrality will be undermined.
Why is Ireland the only EU member to be holding a referendum?
Under Irish law, any amendment to EU treaties requires an amendment to the Irish constitution - and all constitutional amendments require approval by referendum. That has been the case since a Supreme Court ruling in 1987.
Governments in other EU member states have argued that the Lisbon Treaty is an amending treaty which, like other EU amending treaties, only requires parliamentary approval. So they are all going down the parliamentary ratification route.
Yet there are calls in several member states for referendums. In the UK, the opposition Conservatives and some Labour MPs have demanded a referendum. They say the Lisbon Treaty is very much like the EU constitution - and that the Labour Party promised to hold a referendum on the constitution.
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