Apple's CY08 iPhone target
... is still 10 million units, right? If I'm doing the math correctly, iPhone sales really fell off a cliff in Q2.
As of Jan 08, Apple had sold 4 million iPhones. Between Jan-March, Apple sold 1.7 million iPhones. If they really only sold 6M as of the WWDC, than since March, only 300K got shipped. Certainly, shortages and the Osborne effect are partly to blame, but the bottom line is that they'll have 6 months to sell 8 million iPhone 3G (which would be over a 10 fold increase in Q2's run rate, and double the sales rate of the original iPhones' first 6 months). Maybe not coincidentally, they have increased their carrier support also by a factor of 10 this go around. As far as I know, Apple is still sticking to their CY08 target. Realistic?
NO! They're way too LOW!!!
Double the 4 million number from Jan 08 should be a cake walk. The limited Europe roll out was late in the year and handicapped by not having 3G. Many more countries in Europe and elsewhere have been added. The lower entry cost, despite the similar or higher long term cost should stimulate buyers who may have held off. Growth trajectory of iPhones is still very early, and lots of enabling events are left to unfold. I think the only thing limiting higher numbers is going to be production schedules. |
