CD POTENTIAL
From: Karl Drobnic Oct 2 1997 11:17PM Reply #3449
Tim: Cory's CD article is right in step with my thinking. The CD is huge because it gives executives a way to estimate their 1998 and 1999 budget needs for Y2K fixes. It cuts through the fog and lets decision makers take action that will have clear objectives - fix this, this and that, let that slide. It's a decision maker's tool, and nothing can happen until decision makers authorize the spending. No factory manager who values his/her job can risk not running the CD once giants like WNDR, SqD and FluorD send a letter to the top brass saying, "Wake up. You've got a problem. Here's the tool you need."
Once TPRO's partners send out the wake up calls, plant managers jobs will be on the line. And then, as Jenkins chuckled, sales will be "like popcorn popping".
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Cory's CD article:
From: Mark Buczynski Oct 3 1997 5:23PM Reply #3503
< certainly do not think this TPRO rocket is on the launch pad yet. It has several miles to go on a very slow transporter. But I think the wait will be well rewarded when blast-off occurs. (Next Summer???)>
One IMPORTANT aspect of the release of a few days ago was stated as (paraphrasing)"Significant revenues from the Y2K initiative will not be realized until 3rd Q98". Has the "SIGNIFICANT" been defined?
I believe that with the release of the Y2K CD this month some very important and substantial revenues WILL be showing up very soon on the bottom line. May not be significant as the company views it from a revenue volume perspective, but VERY significant in the fact that if the product sells anywhere near the projected volumes: 1)companies are buying the product and have verified TOPRO's value 2)New corporations will be added to TOPRO's already impressive client list 3) More dollars at very good margins will be flowing to the company's bottom line BEFORE 3Q98. (JAN-MAR '98)
Even though initial revenues may not be significant they are extremely important and do nothing but help the bottom line.
From: Karl Drobnic Oct 3 1997 6:25PM Reply #3505
The major significance of the October CD release will not be sales, though those will bring welcome, high profit revenue. Each time a company sends its inventory to TPRO for assessment, the TPRO database will grow. Very quickly, TPRO's database lead will grow so large that competition will be unable to surface. So even more companies will run the CD.
"Database mining" is one of the huge growth industries of the next century. TPRO's knowledge of every significant factory floor in the US will give them a tremendous advantage when it comes to preparing bids for future systems integ. projects. Plus, there are many, many ways to exploit a database. Database exploitation is very high margin. Eg: when WNDR wants to write its next version of FS, who will they pay to get the facts? TPRO!
From: Wade Ramey Oct 3 1997 8:51PM Reply #3508
< "Database mining" is one of the huge growth industries of the next century. >
Database mining refers to sophisticated software that can efficiently "mine" huge databases for quick access of pertinent material. Does this have anything to do with what TPRO is doing? I thought TPRO was simply building a proprietary database--hopefully, a very profitable one.
From: Karl Drobnic Oct 4 1997 12:51PM Reply #3534
Regarding my earlier post about the CD and database mining - the short term effect of the CD will be cash in the till. The medium term effect will be such a fast growth of the TPRO database that competitors (if they arise) will have to license the TPRO database (more cash to TPRO). The long term effect will be "database mining". TPRO will have the most complete picture of industrial America's production facilities in the world.
Suppose you're Boeing looking for new subcontractors to supply parts. You want to know who really has the capacity to deliver. Pay TPRO to assess your short list. TPRO will find a thousand ways to "sell information" without compromising its clients. Knowledge may be power, but information is high-margin sales.
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10/16 Initial Shipment of CD's (PR Release)!!!!!!!!!!
biz.yahoo.com
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From: Karl Drobnic Oct 16 1997 2:09PM Reply #4216
What I focus on in the PR release is the production run of 7500. Who is going to produce 7,500 CDs unless they are certain of selling them? In other words, given the care with which TPRO words its forward-looking announcements, TPRO must have strong commitments from its 3 partners for the sale of this (initial!) production run.
Also, a month has passed since the Sept. conference call in which TPRO talked about negotiating with companies that had up to 900 plant sites. To handle 900 sites, or a portion thereof, TPRO needs the CD. So, with the CD ready, and being a "first class product in every respect", TPRO is now presumbably in position to do multiple site assessments. The jigsaw puzzle is all coming together.
From: Lawrence Hilzenrath Oct 16 1997 2:17PM Reply #4220
7500 x $7,000 per CD equals about $50,000,000 revenue just from the CD. Wow.
From: Karl Drobnic Oct 16 1997 2:39PM Reply #4230
I know that the cost of producing CDs is nominal. Focus on the linguistic clue. Assume that everything in the press release is there for a reason. TOPRO is telling us that selling 7,500 CDs looks like a slam dunk.
Remember that the CEO has a law degree as well as an engineering degree. He knows exactly what he's saying to us. Cost of production is not the issue here. There's a reason to run 7,500. That's how many TPRO thinks it can sell before Version 2 is released. Remember that as data comes in, TPRO will update its data base, and presumably update the CD to Version 2 for the next production run. The CEO is telling us the game plan. Don't get distracted.
From: Jack Zahran Oct 16 1997 2:46PM Reply #4231
I think TPRO has done everything except for slapping us in the face. They firmly believe in this CD and they have reasons for it. They mention daily inquiries, they tell us that a lot of companies are waitng to do top level work first before going further. This means that a lot of companies will need the CD first. TPRO's people work very hard to make the target date, not just for the sake of making a date, but because they got clients waiting.
By third quarter, these CD clients will start turning into longer term contracts. This is a volcanoe scenerio.
From: Jack Zahran Oct 16 1997 5:01PM Reply #4247
Your comments to Cheryl actually shows how large the Y2K CD market is. While many plants may not outsource to TPRO, they will still benefit from TPRO's CD to do their own Y2K work. The CD is an enabling technology, it empowers a plant to do their own analysis work for only $7000. That really is cheap. If it turns out they can't fix the problems on their own, its a safe bet that they will approach TPRO for help. At the least TPRO sells a CD, at best they have a new contract.
They really can't lose in this scenerio. They now have a very profitable software product. Maybe next year they'll start charging for upgrades as they become available. They are the only ones out there with a product. (No Competition!)
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For systems integrators, providing a Y2K solution means continued business with current customers and a foot in the door to new accounts. Systems integrators-this is your chance to transform a problem into an opportunity.
exchange2000.com
See reference made to TAVA/TPRO in article!
Venture Returns article referencing TPRO's CD (9/97)
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