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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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To: Neeka who wrote (254393)	6/14/2008 9:25:29 AM
From: Brumar89	Read Replies (2) of 793717

People who think Obama's going to win do so because 1) they live in a liberal place and are getting an echo chamber effect, or 2) they believe polls which are constantly in the news. Here's a personal polling datapoint I remember. Carter was ahead of Reagan in the polls Aug 1980. So far ahead, Reagan had no chance the talking heads were saying. As the election approached, the polls narrowed. Reagan beat Carter 51% to 41%. A rout. Carter carried five states. In 2004, exit polls showed Kerry beating Bush. Bush won 51% of the popular vote to Kerry's 48%. Polls are noise. They might be wrong because of intentional bias, unintentional bias, or just general inaccuracy. Better off using your own head and gut instincts. IMO Obama lost the general election when ABC broadcast Jeremiah Wright shouting "God damn America" while the congregation Obama was a part of for 20 years shouted approval. People noticed that and won't forget it. That was an unimportant distraction to liberals but told most other people something important about Obama, the man. I think McCain will be a one term President and Hillary can run again and could very well win next time. I don't think we've seen the last of her. JMO's

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