Deflation call? Wait......
We are just getting to the tail end of the credit game, first stocks will deflate starting this year and get worst in 2010/2011. We have just finished 34 years of Early, Middle and Late Economic Expansion, we are just at the end of this credit cycle. The deflation is just starting!
Here is your deflation roadmap!
Stocks
2008, starting this year.
Then after that: 2008 into 2009 and onward
-consumer staples
-services
Followed by: (most likely about a year away) 2009 into 2010
-commodities
-utilities
Then we start a new cycle 2012ish into 2015 (market bottom): Rough guess for now.
You buy, starting in this order and going forward as rally build steam.
-bonds (usually head up just ahead of market bottom, as do finanacials, so watch this in the next few years to mark the bottom).
-financials
-consumer cyclicals
-technology
Do not forget, at market tops the very last to rally ahead of that top are. What have these two done?
-basic materials (what have steel and copper done)
-energy
And just before these two, what would you guess?
-commodities!
These three sectors (commodities, basic materials, energy) are the final leaders at the market top. I can see in your post you understand little about economic/market cycles. We will have our deflation! Mish is so on the money, watch. And 6 people liked that post! Unreal.
And I just handed you your roadmap to invest, what to short as we go forward, do so and you will make a killing.
West |
