ALTERNATIVE ENERGY Global production of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells increased 51% in 2007, to 3,733 megawatts, according to a report from the Worldwatch Institute, Washington, D.C., and Prometheus Institute, Cambridge, Mass. More than 2,935 megawatts (M
"Thanks to strong, smart policies in countries like Germany and Spain, the PV industry is making great strides in efficiency and cost, bringing solar power closer to price parity with fossil fuels," maintains senior researcher Janet Sawin.
Over the past year, Europe-led by Germany-surpassed Japan to lead the world in solar cell manufacturing, producing an estimated 1,063 MW. Thanks to government policies that guarantee high payments for solar power fed into the electric grid, Germany remains the world leader in PV installations, accounting for almost half the world total. About 40,000 people now are employed in that industry in Germany. Spain ranked second for total installations in 2007, but accounts for only an estimated three percent of global production. As in Germany, the Spanish market is being driven by a strong guaranteed price for PV electricity.
Despite a dramatic increase in solar cell production in the U.S., up 48% to 266 MW, the nation's share of global production and installations continues to fall. In contrast, China raced past the U.S. for PV cell manufacturing to place third globally, and ranks second only to Japan for national production. Over the past two years, China's PV production has increased more than sixfold, to 820 MW. Despite these impressive numbers, the domestic market remains small and most PV cells made in China are exported to Europe.
"With billions of dollars invested in the solar energy technologies in the last several months, the PV sector is primed for accelerating its impact in both centralized and distributed generation at increasingly competitive costs," notes Travis Bradford, president of the Prometheus Institute. "As it reaches widespread cost parity in the next few years, demand will flourish in many places around the world simultaneously."
Solar PV prices declined slightly in 2007, with even greater reductions held back by the hot pace of demand and a continued shortage of polysilicon, an essential ingredient for conventional solar cells. Analysts expect much more dramatic price drops-perhaps as much as 50% in the next two years-as more polysilicon becomes available, production and installation are scaled up further, manufacturing efficiencies increase, and more advanced technologies are introduced. As a result, solar electricity soon could be a competitive alternative to conventional retail power in many regions, including California and southern Europe. |
