You will be amazed at how quickly Americans transition away from fossil fuels as new vehicles begin to hit the market. The fuel cell vehicle Al posted about is the start of something good; the Nissan electrics starting in MY 2010 are, too.
If we could just get some drilling going in the meantime, we'll be fine.
First, we don't need new technology to begin a transition to efficiency; it is helpful (hybrids to plug in hybrids to pure electric). To get to the point where the fleet is 90% pure electric we're looking at 20 years minimum. And we have to build the infrastructure to handle the extra electric demand simultaneously. And that's all going to cost a lot of money... and there is the rub.
We can't do it if gas cost, as you say, $6-$8 a gallon, and I suspect we'll be at or over $10 a gallon in 5 years. We'll be in severe recession, the dollar will be worthless, the trade imbalance will be huge, and we certainly can't support one much less two wars.
We need to jump start this process, and we need to do it by incenting efficient vehicles and disincentive inefficient vehicles. I don't care if it's your standard internal combustion engine, if it gets over 45 MPG there should be a big reward for driving one. If you choose and SUV, hybrid or no, that gets under 20 MPG there should be a huge penalty to reflect the cost to society. Technology agnostic... it's all about gasoline efficiency.
And "drilling in the meantime" isn't a solution. Anything started now will take at least 10 years to start a trickle. We will be in a world of hurt in 10 years. I'm for opening ANWR and the 50 mile rule.... but it's a 10% maybe marginal solution. I'm not even sure the oil companies want the long term investment of drilling in these hard, expensive places. Thay have to see that we are moving away from their oil derivatives, to alternatives as you say. Why not milk the high prices for what it's worth. |
