CZZ. The Black Swan, I've looked at CZZ a couple of times and concluded it's just too tough for me to figure. At least as a value stock. Maybe okay as speculation. Possibly will grow greatly if US removes tariffs on ethanol. Maybe even without exports to USA.
I've not ever done well with sugar producer stocks. Failed to extricate myself from USA producer IPSU's predecessor company, failed to buy IPSU as it came out of bk, failed to buy IPSU as it rose strongly. There are just some stocks for some people that they never can do well with -g-.
Still, I have put IPSU on my watch list as the stock again has fallen, have had a gtc order in for a few shares, and I will take a few shares now at current price. This would be a bet for sugar as a commodity (food) rather than sugar as an energy supply. In past it's been very difficult/impossible for sugar producers to have consistent profits. So it seems to me anyway, based on my unsatisfactory experience with this subsector. Supply has always exceeded demand in past - The USA government subsidies to farmers have encouraged overproduction in USA (imo).
This time for IPSU, I note (per Yahoo) the company has no ltd and about $7 in cash/cash equivalents. It trades about $13 with a stated book value of about $14. Not that stated book value itself has stopped this company from going bk before. This time though, the cash backup is strong and substantial.
If sugar producers who can and will make ethanol will continue to focus on sugar as energy, and if demand for sugar as food commodity continues to increase (the pundits are always saying this), then it's possible that IPSU as producer of sugar as a food, maybe this go 'round will do okay too.
Worth a small bet to me to be in. (instead of CZZ for me)
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