I still think highly of Obama, but I can see that this election is no cake walk. I am suspicious of all this talk about Obama leading in this poll and leading in that poll.
Mary, there are too many polls and pollsters. One always must be aware of Republicans' Mad Ave tactic: repeat, repeat, repeat the same old song ad nauseum and it will become reality. That is what they did with electing Bush the first time, it is what they did with Iraq, it is what they did in the '02 and '04 elections, it is what lies behind that famous quote from a "senior administration official" in Ron Suskind's article years ago, that they "create reality" and everyone else just reacts to the reality that they create. They aren't "hypocrites" in the sense that they, many of them, actually believe that, IMO. Or used to believe it. It worked for them for years. It works with all sorts of consumer products. But it only works for awhile in part because it is culture specific and in part because reality is just too complex to be reduced to it. Reality--the "real thing," so to speak<vbg>--will always catch up to the repeated slogans, and prove them false. They are in a bad way right now, but they continue to work according to their modus operandi, trying out one slogan after another, hoping to find one that works. That Hillary's supporters will swing to McCain is one of their slogans. They can't come out and be openly racist, but they'll insinuate things anyway, and will try to smear Obama with witticisms from Michelle or Wright or the "bitter" thing. That Penn interview was interesting in this regard--even Hillary's campaign didn't know how people would react to it, they threw it out there to see if they could pick up a few PA votes with it. Penn almost seemed like a Dick Morris figure to me in that interview, though not quite as slimy as Morris.
Anyway, I've written too much, have to get to work. I think you're worrying about nothing vis a vis the polls. This is Obama's election to lose, IMO, and he won't lose it. I don't say this as a matter of "exhuberance," or I don't think I do. I say it having looked at the electoral map and the past elections in the primaries and the anti-Republican sentiment out there. There is no way that McCain can appeal both to the independents and to the Bush-led base simultaneously. Although there are still 5 long months to go, I think it is at least plausible and maybe even probable at this point that Obama will win in a landslide. And the Democrats will win at least 20-30 seats in the House and at least 6-7 Senate seats, with an outside possibility of up to... well I won't go there. Overconfidence is one of the enemies for sure. And it is better to be worried about losing than it would be to be think that this is a slam-dunk election. |
