Ah.
I found some good data on US oil production.
From the EIA at eia.doe.gov :
Production. In 2008, total domestic crude oil output is projected to average 5.1 million bbl/d, the same as in 2006 and 2007 (U.S. Crude Oil Production). Production growth in the lower-48 and Federal Gulf of Mexico regions is expected to offset declines in Alaskan production. In 2009, total production is projected to average 5.3 million bbl/d, up 210,000 bbl/d from 2008. Federal Gulf of Mexico output is expected to rise 270,000 bbl/d due mostly to the Thunder Horse platform coming on-stream in late 2008 and the Tahiti platform beginning production in 2009, but declines are projected for Alaska and the lower-48 States. This projection includes an estimated expectation of hurricane-induced outage of about 11 million barrels for the offshore region in 2008 (see Hurricane Outlook). Fuel ethanol production is projected to increase from an annual average of 420,000 bbl/d in 2007, to 580,000 bbl/d in 2008 and 640,000 bbl/d in 2009.
Consumption. Total petroleum consumption of liquid fuels and other petroleum products averaged 20.7 million bbl/d in 2007, similar to 2006 (U.S. Petroleum Products Consumption Growth). Based on prospects for a weak economy and record high crude oil and product prices extending into next year, consumption is projected to shrink by 290,000 bbl/d in 2008, a sharper drop than the nearly 200,000 bbl/d projected in the previous Outlook. In 2009, total consumption is projected to rise by 140,000 bbl/d, somewhat less than the nearly 200,000 bbl/d increase projected in the previous Outlook.
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The site also says that total world demand will be up by 1 million bpd this year. It appears that the US, as the world's number one consumer of crude, could easily change the supply/demand balance. First, we are going to be producing a few hundred thousand barrels a day more, and second, we could undoubtedly conserve our way to a 5% decrease in demand, which would decrease world demand by 1 million bpd.
- Allen |
