>>This is probably the reason why the stock keeps going down.
No, the reason Cymer was down today was that the semi book-to-bill is down for September. The entire wafer fab industry went down hard today, and believe me, this is the reason. Wall St. looks to btb as the Bible for future earnings in wafer fab. Cymer did better than a lot of them, but don't necessarily expect it to shoot up on earnings.
Your analysts are convinced at this point that chip sales are slowing down and so the IC makers aren't going to need new steppers to build more chips, because the market for them is slowing.
Whine if you want to, that's the way it is. If you made a six-bagger off wafer fab stocks in the past year, you've gotten the upside of this idiot cycle, now you get to taste the downside. I'm mostly out of wafer fabs right now -- good Lord, even Carl Johnson is holding cash at this point -- and I've said it before. Those who don't learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them. (Oh, okay, George Santayana said it first.) In about six months or a year, the wafer fab industry is going to tank in a huge, huge way, for no good reason. Get your money out and get ready to buy in a year or two. At least this isn't the PRIA board, I bet they're really screaming in amazement. |
