Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 322.32

-5.6%

Jan 30 9:30 AM EST

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To: Tech Buyer who wrote (8708)	10/16/1997 7:57:00 PM
From: davesd	of 70976

Tech, I think it's real silly the way they use a 3 month moving average....they don't give you a month to month booking and sales numbers. Based on that...booking in Sept may have been lower than August.... I hope the formula that SEMI uses is more complex.....but to illustrate my point apr may jun jul aug sep Bookings $ 10 20 30 40 50 45 3 mo avrg - - 20 30 40 45 (this is what we see in B to B) as the bookings go up the 3 mon moving average goes up but it is a lagging indicator. In June when the bookings were really 30,the average shows 20 (average of apr, may and jun).....in August when the booking are 50 the average shows 40...In sept when the booking actually fall to 45 from 50 in the previous month, the average still moves upwards to 45, when in reality the monthly booking were lower. As I said...I'm sure that the formula that SEMI uses is more complex, but the idea behind it is the same...they try to smooth out the ups and downs. Which ends up hiding what is really going on month to month dave

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