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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Madharry who wrote (31234)6/20/2008 10:29:21 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris  Read Replies (1) of 78940
 
>"You are assuming that the longs are not on margin"

Yes, I am never on margin and I would not suggest using margin to anyone.

"Whether you accept my hypothesis about banks or not , it looks like you can buy them cheaper today than yesterday, and I believe you will be able to buy them cheaper on Monday"

It does not matter. You cannot buy stocks at absolute bottom or sell at absolute top. The thing that matters is that longs investing in strong businesses build to survive do not care about the temporary swings up and down. Actually they welcome such swings to add to their positions. Shorts? As you say yourself, if you don't time your short, you are toast. And you need to time it in months or days and not in years as longs.

Show me consistent gains by shorting for 10 years or so and then I will believe it is valid investment approach. What the heck, show me ANYONE who made gains shorting for 10 years and I will change my mind. Situational shorters like Mike Burry and Whitney Tilson do not really count, since 1 good guess does not a great investor (or shorter) make.
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