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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends
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To: AllansAlias who wrote (948)6/21/2008 12:35:38 AM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (1) of 3209
 
Just got home from a great week away. Hope everyone traded well this week.

The last chart I posted before going away was a weekly Dow, with the simple remark "Not much commentary required here...". It showed a bear flag on the weekly. This past week, we fell out of the bear flag. Here is the same chart with the new price bar:



The $XMI is similar in structure to this Dow chart. If these are really bear flags, and who knows if they are (a better bounce would have made them better flags, so I am a little skeptical), then they point lower. $OEX is also not far above its March closing low on the daily.

This week we made a new Dow low, basis weekly close, vis a vis the Jan/Mar lows. We are still about a hundred Dow points above the low close on the daily. As you'd expect, many of the non-tech charts are right at their Jan or Mar low. Most of them have no viable impulsive count for up anymore.

Should be a very interesting week in the market next week. I see some fear finally coming into the market and I think I read an increasing number of bears now on SI these last couple of weeks. Still not enough fear for a lasting low imho, but a decent multi-day bounce can not be far off.

It's been a funny decline since the May highs -- lots of false alarms and still lots of strength in tech and the mid-caps. Tech and mid-caps still look pretty darn good really. I think being away for much of the time since going short in May has helped me stay in it -- you know, not following the wiggles.
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