Now, you know I looked at that stuff. -g/ng The first two examples confirmed a bad final move (sellable) at a major top. The rise into May had bad breadth, as I pointed out a few times. The problem here, is that we are not at a top or a bottom, but in a decline, significant only in a relatively small percentage of stocks. Dow is leading, but the further one gets into any measure that includes a broader range of stocks, especially tech or mid/small caps, there is little participation -- in terms of measures like A/D or NH/NL, as well as just how close they still are to the May highs. Hell, 3 decent up days in tech, mid-caps, and small-caps, and those charts are at new highs vis a vis May.
If, for the sake of argument, the Dow and, say, $OEX, made a new low vis a vis the March low, sometime soon, but the others maintained their relative strength... then I would have to say it is a buyable low based on the poor internals.
Unless tech takes out the June 12 low, which held (barely) this past week, and then tech starts to get sold harder than non-tech, then I am thinking this is a fake-out and we head back up for a few weeks/months. I remain short, but more worried than anytime in the last weeks... |
