I feel EXACTLY as you do. Mot has gotta be mega worried. I think that's part of why they are so anxious to make noise about the next generation/data sats. They want to get momentum going there and appear to be ahead of the curve before the suspicion gets abroad on the street that they blew it w/the Iridium program.
However....while I have no doubt at all that G* is a better design than Iridf, I am less certain that it is not still too expensive. I think there is a world of difference between charging say $.80 for the sat calls and $1.50. I am SURE the market is and will be huge for the former two years from now. I'm not SURE it will be for the latter.
The big issues for me with the G* program are ones I have not heard much (or really at all) discussed here or on AOL. That is... what is the real, end user cost structure gonna be. I don't mean the .55-.35 that G* says they can bring their wholesale charges in at. I mean what the partners are gonna charge. That is, what is Airtouch gonna charge, or get its local partners to charge, for sat time, and for roaming w/them.
If they can undercut the $1 roaming charge in US (and some places even more, you never know til you get your bill), they will do huge. Will really jump start the program. I think that would be a VERY smart move. They will be too small at first for the cell cos to give up their ridiculously excessive no cost roaming charges....and once they do, the Sat Phone market will have major momentum.
And the US is the land of early adopters, so this is a real big deal.
Also a real big deal to me is how fast are the third world and second world locals really gonna get their earth sations up, running, billing effectively, etc, etc.
In all this I think G* beats Mot hands down, but that is only part of the issue.
The real issue for G* is can they undercut roaming charges. Here, and abroad. If not, I'm less sanguine. While I personally would love to use the thing on my saiboat offshore or in the bahamas...even I am gonna have to wonder if I am better off just roaming from wherever. Some utility but a lot less.
Regards, Doug |
