"As I pointed out, you haven't the SLIGHTEST idea what the probability of SOME kind of nuclear device being brought into an American city."
It depends on what you are talking about.
A radiological device is the most likely. A functional, nuclear device, pretty close to zero.
"The kind of damage you suggested is highly unlikely in any event."
It has happened in the past. An Apollo-Amor would be the likely suspect.
"There is at least a reasonable chance of there being 100 loose Russian nuclear weapons in the world."
I suppose this depends on your definition of "reasonable".
"Even if the probably of AQ obtaining a nuclear weapon -- by theft, purchase, or assembly, is certainly higher than 0.001."
Dubious. Assembly is extremely unlikely. That takes a considerable amount of expertise, people and equipment. It isn't something you could do in your garage, for example. Just machining the material takes a lot of very specialized equipment. Given they have no industrial base, making the equipment they would need would be out of the question. And there just aren't that many Nukes 'R Us that carry the right stuff.
Theft is unlikely to be productive. Without the codes for arming the device, it would be a useless endeavor. It is not like there is a red button that you can push.
Purchase, well, I have already been over this. The risk/reward ratio is piss poor for any country that has them.
Your probability of 0.001 is way on the high side.
"Consider the remarks of noted bin laden expert, Michael Scheuer"
He is talking about a radiological weapon. That is a different issue. Frankly, though, some sort of nerve agent is a lot more likely. A lot easier to produce and set off.
Yet, it hasn't been done by al Qaeda, although a Japanese group did try. Their delivery method left a lot to be desired, however. If al Qaeda can't do that, a radiological weapon is probably outside of their grasp.
"IN 2002, documents were captured from AQ that clearly proved they had a strong emphasis on developing a nuclear weapon"
Those documents were about a radiological weapon. Which consists of nuclear materials and explosives. That is something that can be done in a garage. All you need are the nuclear materials. I think we can assume they can handle the explosives.
Yet, it hasn't happened. Most likely reason? The nuclear materials aren't easy to get a hold of.
"The point of all this verbiage is to convey that you are 100% wrong in your understanding of what the likelihood of AQ getting its hands on, and at least ATTEMPTING to detonate some kind of nuclear weapon here in the next decade or two. "
Dubious at best. Unless, of course, you are talking about a radiological weapon. Suitcase nukes or other such weapons are an extremely low probability. Again, the window of opportunity to acquire those was 10-20 years ago. If they had one or more for that long, they would have been used. |
