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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: mishedlo who wrote (80593)6/24/2008 6:00:37 PM
From: Nihontochicken  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
"If a devaluation is coming, the last thing one would want to hold is the d?ng. In the final analysis, the d?ng, the yaun (renminbi), the dollar, and even the Euro are all dung. The only difference is the speed at which that realization will come. It is perfectly rational for demand for gold to rise in Vietnam. Banning imports will do nothing to solve the underlying problem."

Mish, I had thought you maintain that the coming economic meltdown will be necessarily deflationary (e.g., $USDollar appreciates with respect to $Gold), yet you appear to imply the opposite in the above quote regarding the Vietnam prohibition of $Gold imports. In my mind the key question is now not whether a massive financial dislocation will occur, but whether it will be deflationary due to debt service/repudiation, or inflationary, mainly due to Fed response to the debt crisis swinging the pendulum the other way. Hold $Dollars or hold $Gold? M3 would seem to suggest the latter, as you indicate above:

shadowstats.com

Please advise, I'm confused.

NC
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