Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (80650)	6/26/2008 12:02:27 AM
From: jmiller099	Read Replies (1) of 116555

Can I comment? LIG: Year over Year inventory is shrinking in areas of California (i.e. Sacramento) where prices have been obliterated in the past 2-3 years. JM: Yes, it is shrinking slowly. This is probably due to the spring selling season and the backlogs of foreclosures coming to market. LIG: As inventories grew in 2004-2005 while prices climbed, this was oft cited by the housing bears as precursor to collapse. JM: Yes, this is a good leading statistic to track. LIG: Inventory declines being the case, don't you think that the parts of California and Florida which have been smashed have bottomed? JM: No, these inventory numbers just started going positive. Note in your prior example the long duration from the leading indicator to finally be realised in the market. Additionally, the credit market is not getting more loose... LIG: How much lower can it go? JM: I am not familiar with that market, but I would say it could go another 15-20% on gut feel. What is the median income, the employment rate, the trend of the employment rate, and what is the median income presently? Those factors can help your research.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next