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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers

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To: TheBusDriver who wrote (60110)	6/26/2008 3:17:44 PM
From: lbs1989	Read Replies (3) of 78416

Dear Wayne, You ask some very interesting questions! I do not have solid answers as I think we are in uncharted territory. In the early 30's gold and silver were still constitutional money and we were not the universes largest debtor nation. When the stock market drops and Joe Public panics like today he may sell all classes of stock to raise cash for margin calls, mortgage expenses or other expenses. If he has a profit he may try to save it. If he is moving into the red he may try to limit his loss. With our last stagflation we we getting say 21% to 15% interest rates from 1 month to 30 years at one time. High interest rates kill the house market and reward savers IF they can keep ahead of inflation. I do not think those rates beat inflation until later on the long end. I am looking at a scenario over a period of time and trying to segment it into relevant periods where fiat cash maybe king for a segment, bullion and PM stocks and then RE. The last time the Swiss were flooded with hot money the put on a negative interest rate for you deposit accounts. I think while they are all Fiat currencies the Swiss is my choice to depreciate a relatively slower rate and to reintroduce a negative interest tax on your deposits. This means relatively your Francs will hold their "value" better than say $, Euro's our pounds. This of course is all speculation and my education at IMD where I received my MBA and LBS where I am a Sloan Fellow taught me more about asking questions and being skeptical than absolute certainty in my own conclusions. After all my fried we are cut from the same cloth and once a Marine or a First Division Sailor... always one at heart!! Semper Fi

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