Oil Bubble Set to Pop: Crude to Fall 25 Percent in 6 Months, Says Invesco's Garnick
Posted Jun 26, 2008 01:03pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing,
Oil prices surged again Thursday after Libya threatened to cut production and OPEC's president forecast $170 crude this summer. The Fed's inability to raise rates to support the dollar is also keeping crude prices aloft, as well other commodities like gold.
But oil is a bubble that's going to pop soon, says Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco, which has nearly $500 billion of assets under management.
Demand for oil in the emerging market has been "overstated," says Garnick, who foresees a 25% decline for crude in the next six months. Garnick may be right about demand, but I'm still of the view that supply constraints are the fundamental reason for rising oil prices. That said, I'll note commodity maven Marc Faber of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report has also turned cautious on the sector, at least for the next 6 to 12 months.
While Garnick is in the "oil is a bubble" camp, she disagrees with those who blame speculators for its rise and worries about the unintended consequences of related legislation.
finance.yahoo.com |
