Hi Gregor, there is no doubt that anyone who saw these price levels coming several years back, were dead on target and most likely under target. I congratulate them, even though more than 80% surely didn't think we would be at $140 by now.
The USA needed a good kick in the ass so as to be able to finish what they never started in the 70's.
And regarding this irresponsible (in my opinion) note written by CIBC, written by somebody who probably is a lot smarter than me on these topics, I am amazed that they are not putting two and two together. Demand is ALREADY reducing. Things are changing. Not just in the USA but in many countries.
People can only take so much pain, and they only have so much money to spend.
If I am not mistaken, the CIBC note assumes that no changes have been made, that people must now start making changes in their habits. Of course it is a long process, and there are many changes to make, but IT HAS STARTED. What is wrong with this picture?
But, like I said, I am fairly sure that what has contributed far more to this price of $140, is the fact that traders are buying, selling, shorting, and buying to cover future contracts without TAKING DELIVERY and on BORROWED money (margin).
If the governments don't step in right now and put a halt to that with commodities and oil, the very things we need to live on, it is going to be a much slower decline of oil price, but I still feel it will decline from here, after maybe a pop or two up more maybe.
Thanks for that CIBC note. What a joke. |
