1 more on book to bill: A note I sent to Paul Kangas and the whole
Press Release from SEMI. Ian.
Paul,
First, I would like to thank you and the NBR team for the outstanding
business news coverage you provide and the high standards that you
have set. In that spirit, I believe that information concerning the
Semiconductor Equipment Book to Bill ratio would be of value to
your viewers.
In today's NBR, you said,
"...And SGS-Thomson (NYSE:STM) down almost 8 points. It's a
semiconductor stock. First of all, the September book to bill ratio
for that industry fell to 1.07 from 1.09 the month before and today
Goldman Sachs removed SGS-Thomson from the recommended list. "
It is true that the September ratio of Orders Booked ($1.75B) to
Orders Billed ($1.63B) was 1.07; and the August ratio of Orders
Booked ($1.68B) to Orders billed ($1.54B) was 1.09.
It is also true that August bookings of $1.68B increased to $1.75B in
September. i.e. The 3 month moving average was increased by $65M
with the preliminary September number. This is a very nice increase
for any business.
By the same token, the August billings of $1.537B increased by almost
$100M to $1.633B billed in September. Again, many companies would
kill for this large an increase in a year let alone in a month.
Unfortunately, too much emphasis is placed upon the ratio without
ensuring that the information content of the underlying reality is
also understood and communicated.
Further information may be found at:
semi.org
and the September Press release may be accessed at:
semi.org
With warmest regards,
Ian Stromberg
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts September 1997
Book-To-Bill Ratio Of 1.07
Orders and Shipments Continue Steady Rise
MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif., October 16, 1997 -- The North American
semiconductor equipment industry posted a
book-to-bill ratio of 1.07 for September 1997, it was reported by
Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International
(SEMI). A book-to-bill of 1.07 means $107 in orders were received for
each $100 worth of products shipped.
Three-month average shipments increased in September 1997 to $1.6
billion. The figure is six percent above the August 1997
level and 46 percent above the September 1996 level. Three-month
average bookings increased in September 1997 to $1.75
billion. The bookings figure rose four percent above the August 1997
level and 125 percent above the September 1996 level.
"Orders and shipments continue to grow and the September figures
reflect a dramatic increase over the market low of
a year ago. Orders have climbed about five percent per month for
the last eight months,? said Dick Greene, principal
analyst for SEMI. ?There are price pressures in the semiconductor
business, especially in DRAMs, and
manufacturers are upgrading their processes at a rapid pace in
order to remain profitable."
The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving average
bookings to three-month moving average shipments.
Shipments and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.
OCTOBER 1997
7-8
Month
Shipments Bookings
Book-to-Bill
April 97
1,260.5
1,385.7
1
.10
May 97
1,299.4
1,421.0
1.09
June 97
1,374.6
1,474.3
1.07
July 97 (final)
1,475.8
1,658.7
1.12
August 97 (revised)
1,537.
9
1,682.4
1.09
September (preliminary)
1,633.3
1,747.9
1.07
The data contained in this release was compiled by the independent
public accounting firm of Arthur Andersen LLP, without
audit, from data submitted directly by the participants. Arthur
Andersen LLP can assume no responsibility for the accuracy
of the underlying data.
The data are contained in a monthly Express Report published by SEMI
that tracks shipments and orders for equipment used
to manufacture semiconductor devices, not shipments and orders of the
chips themselves.
Based in Mountain View, Calif., SEMI is an international trade
association serving more than 2,000 companies participating in
the $65 billion semiconductor and flat panel display equipment and
materials markets. SEMI maintains offices in Austin,
Beijing, Boston, Brussels, Hsinchu, Moscow, Seoul, Singapore, Tokyo
and Washington, D.C. Visit SEMI OnLine at
www.semi.org. |
