METRICOM - Wireless Data Communications Message Board

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Technology Stocks : METRICOM - Wireless Data Communications

MCOM 0.0115

-17.3%

Jan 12 3:24 PM EST

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To: Trey Yon who wrote (412)	10/16/1997 11:53:00 PM
From: Trey Yon	of 3376

Well people MCOM has blasted thru resistance at $12; so much for TA. This run has been a lot of fun for MCOM longs. But I wanted to post a few numbers which I've shared on this thread before. At $17/sh X 13.6 mill shares = +/-$230 mill market cap; now divide that by 17,000 suscribers (estimated) and your paying $13,500 per subsciber at today's closing price; or put another way using $400/ subscriber as a typical cable valuation you're anticipating subscriber growth going forward into the future of over 500,000. I DON'T THINK SO. All this expectation built into a company that a) has never made a nickel in net income and has lost $3.96 the last 4 qtrs and has no intention of turning a profit for years to come. b) is still cash flow negative with not idea of when it might turn the corner. c) book value around $1.00 d) a management thats overpaid and clearly entrenched to stay. On the question of Mr. Allen & Vulcan Ventures quite a number of their investments have turned out to be less than stellar. He's no Soro's or Buffet. It will be interesting to see whether the million shares sold short have been covered this month. Oh well, just a few words of caution, I've been wrong before and I'll probably be wrong again. But I'm no longer LONG MCOM. TY

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