Paul,
From Albert's LB report for Intel Q3 (http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/s-16438/reply-1445), I noticed the following:
Each product has COST = REVENUE - PROFIT of
P/MMX cost = $3,070 - $1,746 = $1,325
P-II cost = $1,022 - $530 = $492
Ppro cost = $736 - $410 = $326.
Now, I tried to fudge an ASP of about $215, 4M P-II and Ppro, and about 20M devices with ASP of P-II and Ppro equivalent. Just as Patient said you can do this easily on an Excel spread sheet. I got the following:
18.0M P/MMX, 2.4M P-II, and 1.6M Ppro.
The cost of each device would be COST / QUANTITY:
Each P/MMX cost $1,325 / 18.0M = $74
Each P-II cost $492 / 2.4M = $205
Each Ppro cost $326 / 1.6M = $204
Well, this has depreciation taken out of them. We also know that a P/MMX could not cost that much ($74), and you mentioned about how Intel's special case of revenue recognition. I would have to say Intel was still expecting to receive quite a big sum of revenue from the CPUs delivered to its customers at the end of Q3. We are just caught with bad timing! The hidden message is that the earning is a lot better published (of course, you may argue that Intel was expecting to receive unfulfilled revenue at the end of Q2).
Do you agree with my analysis?
John. |
