The slide in SU began almost exactly at the point they announced reduced production, for maintenance, on 16 May 2008. Despite the fact that we are 8 years into a bull market in energy, my view is that the vast majority of investors--even in energy--wouldn't know the difference between an OXY and an SU. I'm not convinced most people even understand the difference between a Driller and a Producer. Learning about these companies takes time. So, it makes sense to me that the market exits SU as they announce reduced production, for 30 days. And then the stock weakens further into the end of the Q, because it has been weak this Q--on a relative basis. So, window dressing favored stocks like XTO and CNQ today, but depressed SU further. How lucky! Having watched all these stocks trade every day for years, I am truly convinced only the smallest portion of investors understand the differences between them--crucial differences. Reserve Life of SU vs COP? Huh?
Anyway, it's been 2+ years since I was in SU as CNQ, COS and NXY drew away my attention. But starting last week, I got back in. I'm buying both the common, and the LEAPS for 2010.
Gregor
PS: I would not be surprised to see SU try to buy more NG production in the years ahead. SU, the AOSP, and Syncrude of course all have further expansion plans, as do CNQ and NXY/Long Lake.
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